Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:10:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
70 0x7014…d7e9 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$10,041 (+33%) realized +$9,736 · open +$305
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%4W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$5,071per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$8,657now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$153
7 days+$7,816
14 days+$8,189
30 days+$8,189
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$8,495
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +39.0% +25.8% 100% 100% +33.9%
≤30d 4 +34.6% +21.8% 100% 100% +31.6%
≤90d 4 +34.6% +21.8% 100% 100% +31.6%
all 4 +34.6% +21.8% 100% 100% +31.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +21.8% 100% +31.6%
10% ← realistic here +10.2% 75% +19.0%
15% -0.5% 50% +7.5%
20% -10.2% 25% -3.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +45% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt +45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
7.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,047 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$8,657
Realized+$9,736
Unrealized+$305
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses4 / 0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage10d
Avg bet$5,071
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 91¢ 90¢ $7,524 $7,483 −$41 (-1%)
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026? Yes 51¢ 72¢ $827 $1,174 +$347 (+42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 25 $421 +$153 +36%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 23 $14,375 +$7,206 +50%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? Jun 20 $1,501 +$458 +30%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? Jun 18 $1,731 +$373 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 91¢ $7,551 1h
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 4h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 54¢ $574 13h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL Yes 20¢ $438 13h
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $823 13h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 56¢ $63 16h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 52¢ $195 22h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 23¢ $442 22h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 20¢ $57 22h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 85¢ $4,445 42h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 88¢ $219 43h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 21¢ $87 43h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 89¢ $146 43h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 44h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 35¢ $76 44h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 84¢ $2,029 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 99¢ $1,937 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 100¢ $117 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 89¢ $21 4d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 86¢ $1,297 4d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 53¢ $730 4d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 65¢ $4,943 6d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 70¢ $1,068 7d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? BUY No 97¢ $459 7d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 70¢ $5 7d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 53¢ $132 7d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 51¢ $3 7d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 51¢ $5 7d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 68¢ $14 7d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 75¢ $400 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,657.08 · official $8,640.89 (match) · 61 history records