Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:57:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
70 0x700f…7b54 crypto 154 markets active 3d ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$31,039 (+105%) realized +$31,039 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +147% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +124% what you keep after slip
Net edge+124%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate95%146W / 8L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$193per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
culture 47% −$8,247
sports 18% +$12,869
crypto 11% +$380
politics 7% −$1,142
other 7% +$6,306
tech 6% +$19,459
economics 3% +$1,414
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)+123.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 10 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 48 +48.8% +34.6% 100% 6% +137.0%
all 154 +147.1% +123.6% 95% 12% +70.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +123.6% 12% +70.3%
10% +102.2% 11% +54.0%
15% +82.7% 11% +39.2%
20% +64.7% 11% +25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +182% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +147% · $-wt +104% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +214% → late +81% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$309 vs −$1,754 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.21 per $1 lost it wins $3.21
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$31,039
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses146 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)154 / 154
History coverage169d
Avg bet$193
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 154 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $21 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on May 25? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on May 25? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on May 25? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on May 25? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on May 25? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on May 25? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on May 25? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 19? May 24 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 7? May 19 $20 $0 +2%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch? May 05 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on April 27? Apr 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on April 27? Apr 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on April 27? Apr 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 27? Apr 30 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 27? Apr 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 27? Apr 30 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on April 27? Apr 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on April 27? Apr 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 27? Apr 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 27? Apr 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on April 27? Apr 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on April 27? Apr 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on April 27? Apr 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 19°C or below on April 27? Apr 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C on April 22? Apr 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 24°C or below on April 22 Apr 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on April 21? Apr 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on April 21? Apr 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 21? Apr 26 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on April 22? Apr 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on April 22? Apr 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on April 22? Apr 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 16? Apr 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar Apr 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have the top AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 15 $4 $0 +0%
AWS service disrupted by March 31? Mar 26 $1,543 +$2,599 +168%
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2026 mee Mar 26 $958 +$1,414 +148%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $265 on March 27? Mar 26 $20 +$939 +4800%
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 26 $19 +$1 +3%
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 16 $19 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 1? Mar 05 $1 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 99¢ $21 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $10 21d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $2 21d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $2 21d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on May 25? BUY No 98¢ $1 21d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $2 21d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $1 21d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $2 21d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $21 26d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 7? BUY No 98¢ $20 40d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch? BUY Yes 98¢ $20 45d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 19°C or below on April 27? BUY No 100¢ $2 49d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on April 27? BUY No 100¢ $2 49d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on April 27? BUY No 99¢ $2 49d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 27? BUY No 97¢ $1 49d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on April 27? BUY No 99¢ $1 49d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on April 27? BUY No 100¢ $1 49d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on April 27? BUY No 99¢ $2 49d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on April 27? BUY No 100¢ $1 49d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 27? BUY No 100¢ $1 49d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 27? BUY No 100¢ $1 49d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on April 27? BUY No 100¢ $1 49d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on April 27? BUY No 100¢ $1 49d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 27? BUY No 100¢ $1 49d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 27? BUY No 98¢ $1 49d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on April 22? BUY No 100¢ $4 55d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on April 22? BUY No 100¢ $5 55d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on April 22? BUY No 100¢ $3 55d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C on April 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 55d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 24°C or below on April 22 BUY No 100¢ $1 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 315 history records