Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:19:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x700f…f917 sports 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$986 (-14%) realized −$986 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate29%26W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$43
7 days−$26
14 days−$28
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$177
crypto 12% −$456
other 9% −$123
world 4% −$281
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-46.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -74.1% -76.6% 17% 10% -14.2%
≤30d 34 -68.1% -71.2% 18% 9% -14.6%
≤90d 41 -66.5% -69.7% 17% 7% -21.5%
all 91 -41.3% -46.9% 29% 22% -23.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.9% 22% -23.4%
10% -52.0% 18% -30.7%
15% -56.6% 14% -37.4%
20% -60.9% 11% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -69% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$40 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$986
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses26 / 65
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)91 / 68
History coverage112d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 91 Trades
no open positions (49 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $57 +$28 +49%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $100 −$35 -35%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$9 +31%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $110 +$6 +5%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$4 +21%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $45 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 10 $15 −$1 -4%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $51 −$1 -1%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 04 $13 +$1 +8%
Roland Garros ATP: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Jiri Lehecka May 25 $10 −$7 -66%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 225.5 May 20 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $10 −$10 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 15 $10 −$2 -15%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? May 07 $10 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 04 $50 −$25 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Mar 20 $36 −$35 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Mar 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Mar 20 $60 −$26 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Mar 20 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Mar 20 $10 +$18 +185%
Lakers vs. Heat Mar 20 $30 +$35 +117%
Suns vs. Spurs Mar 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Clippers vs. Pelicans Mar 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 85¢ $72 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 85¢ $8 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 85¢ $4 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 57¢ $12 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 57¢ $45 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 61¢ $65 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 39¢ $39 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $9 3h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 3h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 93¢ $100 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $110 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 98¢ $107 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $100 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 3d
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette SELL Magda Linette 15¢ $45 6d
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette BUY Magda Linette 15¢ $15 6d
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette BUY Magda Linette 15¢ $30 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $4 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $11 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 9d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 37¢ $50 11d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 11d
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever SELL Indiana Fever 76¢ $11 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 199 history records