Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:30:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x700e…4515 crypto 72 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (131 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-4%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate78%56W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day131.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (131 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -4.5% -13.6% 78% 49% -13.8%
≤30d 72 -4.5% -13.6% 78% 49% -13.8%
≤90d 72 -4.5% -13.6% 78% 49% -13.8%
all 72 -4.5% -13.6% 78% 49% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover131.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.6% 49% -13.8%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 18% -22.0%
15% -29.4% 3% -29.6%
20% -36.4% 1% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses56 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)72 / 72
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day131.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 72 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $3 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $3 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $4 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $4 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $4 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 132 history records