Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:17:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x700d…e0b2 crypto 144 markets active 3d ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$261 (-3%) realized −$261 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate62%89W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$167
14 days−$266
30 days−$399
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$93
crypto 37% −$210
other 5% −$103
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 +5.6% -4.5% 61% 56% -15.7%
≤30d 136 +3.9% -6.0% 62% 54% -13.8%
≤90d 144 +4.2% -5.7% 62% 53% -13.9%
all 144 +4.2% -5.7% 62% 53% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 53% -13.9%
10% -14.7% 44% -22.1%
15% -23.0% 31% -29.7%
20% -30.5% 19% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$38 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$261
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses89 / 55
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions0
Markets (closed)144 / 144
History coverage36d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 144 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$7 -70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $35 −$22 -63%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$20 +109%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $74 −$34 -46%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $344 −$153 -44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $154 −$1 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $101 +$18 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$10 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $41 +$22 +55%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$5 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$18 +89%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $97 +$64 +66%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $31 +$14 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $60 +$23 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $46 +$14 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $31 +$11 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$9 +35%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$1 -24%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $17 +$10 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $148 −$131 -89%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$56 +55%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $79 +$22 +28%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $117 −$38 -32%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -16%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +166%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -87%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton Jun 13 $32 −$28 -85%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $23 +$9 +40%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $69 −$39 -57%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$8 +76%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +8%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $44 +$10 +23%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $30 +$14 +46%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $28 +$1 +4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $14 +$15 +105%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$11 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$5 -74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $31 −$30 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$3 +27%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$11 -43%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $33 +$13 +39%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 11 $17 +$15 +90%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$6 +54%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$10 +49%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $75 −$51 -69%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $61 +$13 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $21 −$20 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$2 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $6 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $28 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $11 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $8 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 586 history records