Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:29:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x700b…06a2 sports 71 markets active 2h ago coverage 430d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$428 (-9%) realized −$428 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%30W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$183now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$46
14 days−$676
30 days−$676
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$438
other 38% −$141
world 2% +$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +113.7% +93.3% 50% 50% -11.9%
≤30d 11 +55.4% +40.6% 36% 36% -35.0%
≤90d 13 +40.4% +27.1% 38% 38% -34.0%
all 68 -2.2% -11.5% 44% 44% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 44% -19.0%
10% -20.0% 41% -26.7%
15% -27.7% 34% -33.8%
20% -34.8% 31% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$59 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

430d coverage
Net worth$183
Realized−$428
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses30 / 38
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)68 / 71
History coverage430d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? No 12¢ 12¢ $96 $92 −$4 (-4%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $75 $74 −$1 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 58¢ 82¢ $12 $16 +$5 (+42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $448 −$440 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $390 +$410 +105%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $285 −$280 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $84 +$96 +114%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $438 +$52 +12%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $18 +$182 +982%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $66 −$64 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 15 $53 −$2 -3%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 11 $591 −$585 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $23 −$23 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $22 −$22 -99%
76ers vs. Cavaliers Apr 14 $86 +$14 +16%
Heat vs. Hornets Apr 14 $13 −$13 -98%
Suns vs. Heat Mar 09 $25 +$25 +100%
Rotterdam Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Feb 10 $14 −$14 -100%
Rams vs. Bears Jan 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Pistons vs. Celtics Jan 13 $46 +$54 +117%
Giants vs. Patriots Dec 15 $30 +$10 +32%
Magic vs. 76ers Nov 17 $18 +$32 +178%
Cowboys vs. Raiders Nov 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Eagles vs. Packers Nov 10 $25 −$25 -100%
Bucks vs. Pacers Nov 03 $17 −$17 -100%
Wild vs. Rangers Oct 23 $136 +$54 +40%
Blackhawks vs. Lightning Oct 23 $59 −$59 -100%
Jets vs. Islanders Oct 13 $53 −$53 -100%
Vikings vs. Steelers Oct 07 $58 +$81 +138%
Blackhawks vs. Panthers Oct 07 $28 −$28 -100%
Tigers vs. Guardians Sep 30 $74 −$74 -100%
Seahawks vs. Cardinals Sep 25 $33 −$33 -100%
Guardians vs. Tigers Sep 22 $53 +$67 +127%
Lions vs. Ravens Sep 22 $69 −$69 -100%
Cubs vs. Pirates Sep 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Buccaneers vs. Texans Sep 15 $138 −$138 -100%
Vikings vs. Bears Sep 15 $270 +$230 +85%
Cowboys vs. Eagles Sep 08 $240 +$60 +25%
Appalachian State vs. Charlotte Sep 04 $195 +$110 +56%
Boise State vs. South Florida Aug 29 $34 +$66 +194%
Bengals vs. Commanders Aug 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Phillies vs. Reds Aug 18 $75 +$85 +113%
Phillies vs. Reds Aug 11 $27 −$27 -100%
Astros vs. Marlins Aug 04 $16 −$16 -100%
Orioles vs. Guardians Jul 30 $8 +$7 +79%
Tigers vs. Pirates Jul 30 $10 +$8 +82%
Suns vs. Timberwolves Jul 21 $11 +$4 +33%
Kings vs. Cavaliers Jul 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Red Sox vs. Nationals Jul 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Dodgers vs. Brewers Jul 14 $4 +$6 +138%
Bulls vs. Pacers Jul 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Hawks vs. Rockets Jul 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Rangers vs. Orioles Jul 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $76 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 12¢ $99 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $12 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $448 15h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $390 38h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 35¢ $285 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $438 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 46¢ $84 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $66 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No $18 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 51¢ $53 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $591 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $23 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $22 11d
Heat vs. Hornets BUY Heat 33¢ $13 66d
76ers vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 86¢ $86 102d
Rotterdam Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard BUY Perricard 27¢ $14 129d
Rams vs. Bears BUY Bears 36¢ $11 152d
Suns vs. Heat BUY Heat 50¢ $25 157d
Pistons vs. Celtics BUY Pistons 46¢ $46 186d
Giants vs. Patriots BUY Patriots 76¢ $30 200d
Cowboys vs. Raiders BUY Raiders 37¢ $18 214d
Eagles vs. Packers BUY Packers 50¢ $25 221d
Bucks vs. Pacers BUY Pacers 34¢ $17 228d
Magic vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 36¢ $18 235d
Blackhawks vs. Lightning BUY Lightning 74¢ $59 239d
Wild vs. Rangers BUY Wild 44¢ $44 242d
Wild vs. Rangers SELL Wild 43¢ $90 242d
Wild vs. Rangers BUY Wild 44¢ $92 242d
Jets vs. Islanders BUY Islanders 48¢ $53 249d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $182.90 · official $183.10 (match) · 122 history records