Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:26:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
70 0x700a…a239 sports 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 256d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,028 (+3%) realized +$1,231 · open +$2,797
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate81%38W / 9L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$2,393per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$133est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$20,644now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 256d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$3,554
world 24% +$2,534
politics 13% +$5,283
other 8% −$2,764
crypto 0% +$17
finance 0% −$50
tech 0% +$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -19.3% -27.0% 71% 19% -6.4%
≤30d 26 -12.4% -20.7% 77% 23% -5.6%
≤90d 33 -4.0% -13.2% 82% 30% -4.4%
all 47 +3.4% -6.5% 81% 43% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.5% 43% -4.3%
10% ← realistic here -15.4% 32% -13.5%
15% -23.6% 11% -21.9%
20% -31.1% 4% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$3,950) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +22% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$260 vs −$449 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.44 per $1 lost it wins $2.44
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

256d coverage
Net worth$20,644
Realized+$1,231
Unrealized+$2,797
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses38 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$133
Open positions3
Markets (closed)47 / 50
History coverage256d
Avg bet$2,393
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Over 94¢ 94¢ $10,000 $9,947 −$53 (-1%)
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? Yes 61¢ 99¢ $4,666 $7,561 +$2,894 (+62%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Over 90¢ 88¢ $3,180 $3,136 −$44 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 21 $10,897 +$2,312 +21%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $4,285 +$462 +11%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $4,105 +$173 +4%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $3,950 +$160 +4%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $3,607 +$346 +10%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $3,407 +$178 +5%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $2,306 +$221 +10%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $841 +$43 +5%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $781 +$48 +6%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $2,155 +$172 +8%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5,908 −$3,746 -63%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5,560 +$344 +6%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $5,209 +$323 +6%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5,002 +$243 +5%
Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 12? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 15 $3,632 +$983 +27%
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer Jun 15 $264 +$78 +30%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $10,800 +$107 +1%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 May 30 $315 +$119 +38%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 0.5 May 30 $9,524 +$860 +9%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 29 $9,127 +$713 +8%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 24 $21 +$6 +29%
Will Manchester United finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standing May 22 $10 +$11 +112%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? May 01 $6,649 +$1,494 +22%
Will Trump say "King" during King Charles visit? Apr 28 $7 $0 +3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 28 $934 +$125 +13%
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? Apr 08 $208 +$55 +27%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 07 $202 +$6 +3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 03 $570 +$48 +8%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Mar 20 $178 +$24 +14%
Will the Individual taxation referendum be approved in Switzerland’s 8 Mar 08 $154 −$101 -66%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 08 $5 $0 -9%
Will Trump say "Russia" during the State of the Union address? Feb 25 $47 +$11 +23%
Will Trump say "Europe" or "European" during the State of the Union ad Feb 25 $50 +$10 +20%
Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? Feb 25 $202 +$17 +8%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? Feb 16 $40 +$11 +26%
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? Dec 28 $41 +$18 +45%
TikTok sale announced in 2025? Dec 28 $40 +$53 +133%
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31? Nov 01 $30 +$11 +37%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Oct 31 $161 +$41 +26%
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 15? Oct 13 $100 +$27 +27%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31? Oct 09 $65 +$17 +27%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10? Oct 09 $149 −$27 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $3,190 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $10,018 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 98¢ $13,209 2h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY Yes 61¢ $4,740 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $4,285 11h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $4,105 28h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $3,950 40h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $3,607 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $3,054 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $353 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $841 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $2,306 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $781 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $2,155 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 28¢ $882 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 29¢ $1,279 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $5,908 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $5,560 5d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $5,209 6d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $5,002 6d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz SELL No 100¢ $4,615 6d
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer SELL Yes 100¢ $342 6d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 78¢ $3,632 16d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 80¢ $10,897 20d
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland BUY Switzerland 54¢ $20 21d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $10,800 21d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $315 23d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $9,524 23d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $9,840 23d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In BUY Weibo Gaming 67¢ $27 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20,643.58 · official $20,643.58 (match) · 119 history records