Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:58:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x7007…3c9e other 113 markets active 2h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$72 (-0%) realized −$73 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate6%7W / 103L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$226per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$165now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$15
14 days−$16
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$17
politics 18% −$5
sports 6% −$49
economics 4% −$1
world 3% −$1
culture 2% −$1
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -25.1% -32.3% 0% 0% -13.7%
≤30d 19 -5.4% -14.4% 11% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 107 -6.4% -15.3% 7% 4% -9.8%
all 110 -6.2% -15.2% 6% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 4% -9.8%
10% -23.3% 4% -18.4%
15% -30.7% 4% -26.3%
20% -37.5% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×5.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$165
Realized−$73
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses7 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)110 / 113
History coverage93d
Avg bet$226
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $124 $125 +$0 (+0%)
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves San Francisco Giants 44¢ 48¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $42 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $46 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $233 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $24 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $46 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $32 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $35 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $30 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $449 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $41 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $56 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 02 $42 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May? Jun 02 $120 $0 +0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $249 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $45 $0 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 24 $30 $0 -0%
Will Gillian Sherratt win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 23 $48 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $35 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $1,101 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $628 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 17 $420 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $220 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $210 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $218 $0 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 14 $216 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 13 $207 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $207 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $216 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 07 $209 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 06 $206 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $677 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 05 $223 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 04 $219 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $208 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $211 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $420 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 02 $217 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $214 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $414 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 29 $219 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $839 −$1 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $224 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $400 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $417 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $423 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $224 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $669 −$1 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $439 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 15 $217 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $32 1h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $42 22h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $42 26h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 59¢ $15 30h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 44¢ $8 34h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $46 2d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $46 2d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $30 2d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $31 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $124 3d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 8d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 8d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $46 8d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $46 9d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $32 9d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $35 9d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $35 9d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 12d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $30 13d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $30 13d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $40 15d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $40 15d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $41 15d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $41 15d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 16d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 16d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $24 18d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 19d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 20d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $164.77 · official $164.77 (match) · 329 history records