Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:23:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

70 0x7006…705a sports 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$1,117 (+35%) realized +$1,124 · open −$7

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip

Net edge+27%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%4W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$642per market

Trades / day1.5pace

Fees−$12est.

Kalshi-fit60%portable

Net worth$873now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+32.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+46.2%	+32.3%	100%	100%	+33.2%
≤30d	4	+46.2%	+32.3%	100%	100%	+33.2%
≤90d	4	+46.2%	+32.3%	100%	100%	+33.2%
all	4	+46.2%	+32.3%	100%	100%	+33.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.5 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+32.3%	100%	+33.2%
10%	+19.6%	100%	+20.4%
15%	+8.1%	100%	+8.8%
20%	-2.5%	0%	-1.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 45% · top 2 71% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +47% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +46% · $-wt +47% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$274 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$873

Realized+$1,124

Unrealized−$7

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses4 / 0

Est. fees paid−$12

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage4d

Avg bet$642

Trades / day1.5

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	63¢	62¢	$880	$873	−$7 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 20	$611	+$279	+46%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 19	$419	+$192	+46%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5	Jun 18	$292	+$127	+44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$996	+$496	+50%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	63¢	$890	1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	68¢	$611	25h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	68¢	$419	2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	69¢	$292	3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,492	3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$996	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $873.22 · official $873.22 (match) · 9 history records