Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:54:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x7003…1200 sports 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$78 (-16%) realized −$38 · open −$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$110
7 days+$90
14 days−$80
30 days−$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$51
other 15% −$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-34.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +43.8% +30.1% 75% 75% +30.7%
≤30d 8 -28.1% -34.9% 38% 38% -29.0%
≤90d 8 -28.1% -34.9% 38% 38% -29.0%
all 8 -28.1% -34.9% 38% 38% -29.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.9% 38% -29.0%
10% -41.2% 38% -35.8%
15% -46.8% 38% -42.0%
20% -52.1% 38% -47.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$44 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$38
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage11d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: England (-1.5) England 63¢ 62¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Under 57¢ 12¢ $50 $10 −$40 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $51 +$39 +76%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $51 +$71 +140%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 +$30 +60%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $51 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $51 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $51 26h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 41¢ $51 26h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $51 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $51 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $51 8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 9d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $51 10d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.69 · official $59.69 (match) · 13 history records