Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:19:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x7003…ddb4 world 85 markets active 1h ago coverage 485d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$19 (-1%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate31%26W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$7
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$16
other 23% $0
politics 17% +$2
sports 12% −$6
economics 7% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.9% -10.3% 12% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 28 -2.1% -11.4% 18% 4% -10.7%
≤90d 75 -1.8% -11.2% 27% 3% -9.9%
all 83 -1.7% -11.1% 31% 4% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 4% -10.1%
10% -19.6% 2% -18.7%
15% -27.4% 2% -26.6%
20% -34.5% 1% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses26 / 57
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)83 / 85
History coverage485d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alberta join the US? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-20%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $27 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $27 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $95 −$1 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $37 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $57 −$2 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $27 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 11 $63 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $29 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $14 −$3 -21%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $32 $0 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $35 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $67 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 04 $35 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 01 $32 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $73 −$3 -4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $163 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $1 $0 -5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $77 +$3 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $34 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $94 −$6 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $8 −$1 -18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $36 +$5 +14%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $46 −$6 -12%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $41 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 15 $22 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $45 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 27 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $36 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $3 $0 -4%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $44 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $18 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $87 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $225 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $46 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $95 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $13 $0 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $4 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $1 $0 -12%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 21 $42 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 20 $14 $0 +1%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $14 $0 -3%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $48 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $30 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $30 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $27 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $27 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $10 34h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $4 34h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $14 34h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $7 34h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $20 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $28 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $28 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $8 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $8 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $15 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $13 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $10 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $17 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $27 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $27 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $18 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $9 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $29 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $29 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $25 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $4 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 64¢ $20 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 64¢ $9 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $29 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.86 · official $0.00 (match) · 381 history records