Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:54:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
6F 0x6ffc…74a8 crypto 101 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$28 (+6%) realized +$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate93%94W / 7L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$22
14 days+$23
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$21
other 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 +8.4% -1.9% 93% 22% -5.5%
≤30d 101 +9.1% -1.3% 93% 26% -5.3%
≤90d 101 +9.1% -1.3% 93% 26% -5.3%
all 101 +9.1% -1.3% 93% 26% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.3% 26% -5.3%
10% -10.8% 15% -14.4%
15% -19.4% 10% -22.7%
20% -27.3% 8% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.88 per $1 lost it wins $1.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses94 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)101 / 101
History coverage9d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 101 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $22 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $22 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $20 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 280 history records