Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:53:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6F 0x6ff8…ad59 crypto 828 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 14d only
✗ bot/MM pace (184 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$594 (-3%) realized −$592 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate43%419W / 554L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day184.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,123
7 days−$1,265
14 days−$1,626
30 days−$1,609
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$439
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (184 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 432 -30.1% -36.8% 32% 26% -21.1%
≤30d 973 -12.5% -20.9% 43% 34% -16.1%
≤90d 973 -12.5% -20.9% 43% 34% -16.1%
all 973 -12.5% -20.9% 43% 34% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover184.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.9% 34% -16.1%
10% ← realistic here -28.4% 27% -24.2%
15% -35.4% 23% -31.5%
20% -41.7% 16% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$592
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses419 / 554
Open positions1
Markets (closed)973 / 828
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$24
Trades / day184.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 973 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Up 67¢ 60¢ $21 $19 −$2 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 219 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$20 -3897%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$10 -1970%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $11 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $11 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $11 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $11 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $11 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $11 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $19 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $24 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $32 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $11 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $13 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $9 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $15 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $9 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $9 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $8 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $9 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $15 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $9 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $15 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $11 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $11 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $12 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $8 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $11 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $9 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $12 37m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.69 · official $19.31 (match) · 3500 history records