Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:27:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6F 0x6ff6…25ba crypto 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$196 (+30%) realized +$197 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR76%break-even
Win rate82%14W / 3L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day34.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$82
sports 29% +$98
other 13% +$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +76%
net ROI/market (all)+25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +38.3% +25.2% 82% 76% +1.8%
≤30d 17 +38.3% +25.2% 82% 76% +1.8%
≤90d 17 +38.3% +25.2% 82% 76% +1.8%
all 17 +38.3% +25.2% 82% 76% +1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +25.2% 76% +1.8%
10% ← realistic here +13.2% 76% -8.0%
15% +2.3% 65% -16.9%
20% -7.8% 59% -25.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late +42% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$59 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized+$197
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses14 / 3
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)17 / 21
History coverage1d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day34.0
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Over 67¢ 66¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? Yes 79¢ 78¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Up 84¢ 76¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $122 −$120 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $102 +$25 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$25 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$12 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$25 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -96%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $46 +$46 +101%
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? Jun 17 $20 +$7 +36%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $30 +$36 +119%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $26 +$15 +58%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $15 +$14 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$6 +57%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$15 +76%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $20 +$12 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $101 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $21 10m
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? BUY Yes 79¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $126 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $102 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $30 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $45 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $32 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $46 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $15 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 SELL Over 10¢ $5 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 BUY Over 18¢ $10 5h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $25 6h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 6h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $29 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 8h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $36 8h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $15 9h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $30 9h
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? BUY Yes 73¢ $20 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.74 · official $90.88 (match) · 41 history records