Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:34:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6F
0x6ff6…e4fb
weather · 544 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
+$248 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$292 · open −$44
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$228
Realized+$292
Unrealized−$44
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses369 / 163
Open positions12
Markets (closed)532 / 544
History coverage53d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 12 History 532 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$213
7 days+$106
14 days−$640
30 days−$312
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? No 42¢ 57¢ $45 $62 +$17 (+38%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 13? No 93¢ 100¢ $38 $41 +$3 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 13? No 96¢ 100¢ $38 $40 +$2 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? No 90¢ 100¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? No 93¢ 67¢ $34 $25 −$10 (-28%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 13? Yes 77¢ 100¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+29%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 13? No 93¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 13? Yes 88¢ 100¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 13? No 36¢ 2¢ $31 $2 −$29 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? No 50¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 13? Yes 67¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? No 61¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 7? No 42¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 10? No 64¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? No 83¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 5? No 31¢ 0¢ $59 $0 −$59 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 5? No 30¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 7? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 12? No 33¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 8? Yes 66¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 10? No 14¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 6? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 9? No 53¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 6? No 36¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11? No 13¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 12? Jun 13 $17 +$4 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 12? Jun 13 $42 +$8 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? Jun 13 $18 +$28 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 +$72 +611%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $19 +$27 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $17 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 +$33 +82%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 +$6 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$21 +106%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$9 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $17 +$22 +130%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $21 +$14 +66%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $28 −$27 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 11? Jun 12 $19 +$3 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $29 −$29 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $27 −$27 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $42 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $30 +$33 +110%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $43 +$18 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 +$7 +108%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 +$8 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 11? Jun 11 $25 +$12 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $42 +$10 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $31 +$45 +145%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $44 +$7 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $19 +$43 +224%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $24 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 −$19 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $18 +$12 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $36 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $46 +$9 +20%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $25 −$24 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $21 −$21 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $26 −$25 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 −$19 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $24 −$23 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 10? Jun 11 $16 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $35 −$35 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 10? Jun 11 $33 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? Jun 11 $46 +$25 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$248
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? BUY No 42¢ $46 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? BUY No 93¢ $35 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? BUY No 90¢ $30 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 36¢ $31 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $38 3h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 13? BUY Yes 88¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 77¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 67¢ $13 4h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 93¢ $7 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 61¢ $7 6h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 50¢ $14 7h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 93¢ $39 8h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 12? BUY No 33¢ $4 16h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 17h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 12? BUY No 79¢ $17 17h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? BUY Yes 53¢ $28 18h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 12? BUY No 84¢ $42 18h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? BUY No 13¢ $12 18h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? BUY No 38¢ $18 19h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? BUY No 13¢ $14 21h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 47¢ $20 22h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 12? BUY No 54¢ $40 23h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? BUY No 40¢ $19 23h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 97¢ $16 23h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 89¢ $17 24h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 54¢ $8 24h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 87¢ $2 25h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 86¢ $16 27h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 12? BUY No 41¢ $12 28h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 42¢ $17 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 157 +3.4% -6.5% 66% 49% -6.9%
≤30d 473 -3.2% -12.4% 67% 46% -11.1%
≤90d 532 -0.8% -10.2% 69% 46% -8.3%
all 532 -0.8% -10.2% 69% 46% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 46% -8.3%
10% -18.8% 33% -17.1%
15% -26.6% 23% -25.1%
20% -33.8% 17% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $228.40 · official $228.40 (match) · 1031 history records