Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:27:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6ff2…f140 weather 209 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 16d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (214 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$10,692 (+85%) realized +$10,693 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%49W / 350L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day213.6pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$785now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 97% +$3,022
other 3% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (214 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-46.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 243 -71.6% -74.3% 6% 6% -67.4%
≤30d 399 -40.9% -46.6% 12% 12% -20.8%
≤90d 399 -40.9% -46.6% 12% 12% -20.8%
all 399 -40.9% -46.6% 12% 12% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover213.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -46.6% 12% -20.8%
10% ← realistic here -51.7% 10% -28.4%
15% -56.4% 10% -35.3%
20% -60.6% 9% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -84% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
15.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$169 vs −$27 · ×6.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$785
Realized+$10,693
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses49 / 350
Open positions14
Markets (closed)399 / 209
History coverage16d ⚠
Avg bet$60
Trades / day213.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 399 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30? No 92¢ 94¢ $306 $312 +$6 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? Yes 29¢ 26¢ $156 $143 −$13 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? Yes 1¢ 11¢ $12 $112 +$100 (+859%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? No 55¢ 100¢ $50 $91 +$41 (+82%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? Yes 5¢ 8¢ $46 $75 +$30 (+65%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 17? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 17? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 17? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $35 $1 −$34 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$8 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 17? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-94%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 355 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 24? Jun 17 $107 −$107 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on May 25? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 31? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ma Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ma Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on May 22? Jun 17 $91 −$91 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 31? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C or below on June 1? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 18? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 22? Jun 17 $175 −$175 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on May 29? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on May 25? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on May 25? Jun 17 $41 −$62 -152%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 1? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on May 25? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 24? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 23? Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on May 26? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ma Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on May 21? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on May 27? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 30? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 20? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 20? Jun 17 $1 −$58 -4563%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 17? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on Ma Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 24? Jun 17 $120 −$122 -102%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 21? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 23? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on May 25? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on May 21? Jun 17 $20 −$47 -239%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 1? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 25? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on May 23? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 25? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on May 29? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on May 21? Jun 17 $59 −$59 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on May 30? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 27? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 18? Jun 17 $6 −$9 -157%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 1? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C or below on May 25? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on May 24? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 31? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on May 27? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 24? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 29? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on May 22? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on Ma Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on May 24? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 55¢ $51 39m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 40m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 43m
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 48m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 24¢ $30 49m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 50m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 50m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 50m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 53m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 54m
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $307 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $785.28 · official $797.20 · 3500 history records