Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:23:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6ff2…5586 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$73 (-11%) realized −$107 · open +$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$288now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% +$18
sports 9% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-46.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -40.4% -46.1% 33% 33% -27.2%
≤30d 3 -40.4% -46.1% 33% 33% -27.2%
≤90d 3 -40.4% -46.1% 33% 33% -27.2%
all 3 -40.4% -46.1% 33% 33% -27.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.1% 33% -27.2%
10% -51.2% 33% -34.2%
15% -55.9% 0% -40.6%
20% -60.3% 0% -46.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$65 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$288
Realized−$107
Unrealized+$34
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)3 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 76¢ $146 $211 +$65 (+44%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $59 $58 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $11 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Yes 21¢ 4¢ $39 $8 −$30 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $184 +$57 +31%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $59 −$57 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $132 −$73 -55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $11 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $60 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $40 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $150 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $184 15h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 16h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $59 16h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 20¢ $59 16h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $132 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $288.26 · official $288.26 (match) · 10 history records