Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:27:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
6F 0x6ff1…4ec0 sports 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$28 (+7%) realized +$21 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate96%22W / 1L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days+$38
14 days+$42
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$64
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +40.2% +26.8% 100% 100% +25.0%
≤30d 9 +25.8% +13.8% 89% 78% +11.1%
≤90d 23 +15.1% +4.2% 96% 57% +3.2%
all 23 +15.1% +4.2% 96% 57% +3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.2% 57% +3.2%
10% -5.8% 26% -6.7%
15% -14.9% 13% -15.7%
20% -23.2% 4% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +22% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×10.62 per $1 lost it wins $10.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses22 / 1
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage70d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 73¢ 94¢ $25 $32 +$7 (+29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 23 $26 +$11 +42%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 23 $28 +$9 +31%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 23 $25 +$9 +38%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 22 $7 +$2 +31%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $6 +$4 +66%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $6 +$2 +33%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $19 +$2 +11%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $19 +$2 +10%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $20 −$6 -29%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 22 $20 +$3 +13%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 17 $19 +$3 +13%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 15 $19 +$2 +10%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 15 $18 +$2 +10%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 14 $18 +$2 +12%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 09 $18 +$2 +11%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights May 07 $17 +$1 +8%
Golden Knights vs. Utah May 02 $17 $0 +2%
Oilers vs. Ducks May 01 $17 +$2 +10%
Oilers vs. Ducks Apr 25 $16 +$2 +11%
Penguins vs. Flyers Apr 23 $16 $0 +3%
Flyers vs. Penguins Apr 21 $16 +$2 +11%
Bruins vs. Sabres Apr 20 $16 $0 +1%
Sharks vs. Predators Apr 14 $16 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins SELL Texas Rangers 99¢ $38 56m
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Detroit Tigers 99¢ $37 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 73¢ $25 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays SELL Kansas City Royals 99¢ $34 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Kansas City Royals 71¢ $25 2h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Texas Rangers 69¢ $26 2h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 75¢ $28 3h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Philadelphia Phillies 99¢ $9 24h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 75¢ $7 26h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Baltimore Orioles 99¢ $11 28h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 99¢ $8 29h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 74¢ $6 29h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 59¢ $6 30h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Hurricanes 99¢ $21 7d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 89¢ $19 8d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes SELL Hurricanes 99¢ $21 10d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 90¢ $19 11d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes SELL Golden Knights 62¢ $14 17d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 86¢ $20 18d
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes SELL Canadiens 99¢ $22 32d
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes BUY Canadiens 87¢ $20 32d
Sabres vs. Canadiens SELL Sabres 99¢ $22 36d
Sabres vs. Canadiens BUY Sabres 87¢ $19 37d
Golden Knights vs. Ducks SELL Golden Knights 99¢ $21 38d
Golden Knights vs. Ducks BUY Golden Knights 90¢ $19 38d
Canadiens vs. Sabres SELL Canadiens 99¢ $20 39d
Canadiens vs. Sabres BUY Canadiens 90¢ $18 39d
Wild vs. Avalanche SELL Wild 99¢ $18 39d
Wild vs. Avalanche SELL Wild 99¢ $1 39d
Wild vs. Avalanche SELL Wild 99¢ $1 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.43 · official $32.43 (match) · 50 history records