Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:11:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6F 0x6ff0…1dd1 politics 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 598d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$4,342 (+20%) realized +$4,351 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%6W / 8L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$1,192per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$370now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$175
7 days−$70
14 days−$178
30 days−$272
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 94% +$4,573
other 5% −$109
sports 1% −$125
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-30.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +28.1% +15.9% 67% 67% -28.7%
≤30d 7 -23.3% -30.6% 43% 43% -38.8%
≤90d 7 -23.3% -30.6% 43% 43% -38.8%
all 14 -23.1% -30.4% 43% 43% +9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.4% 43% +9.5%
10% -37.1% 36% -1.0%
15% -43.1% 36% -10.6%
20% -48.7% 29% -19.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt +21% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,460 vs −$552 · ×2.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.99 per $1 lost it wins $1.99
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

598d coverage
Net worth$370
Realized+$4,351
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)14 / 18
History coverage598d
Avg bet$1,192
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $198 $197 −$1 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 19¢ $125 $119 −$6 (-5%)
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 57¢ 53¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $26 $26 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $31 +$25 +79%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $100 +$105 +105%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $99 −$97 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $202 +$105 +52%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $199 −$199 -100%
First Round Pool C: South Korea vs. Chinese Taipei Mar 08 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Korea win Pool C at the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 07 $9 −$6 -68%
Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2025? Apr 01 $1,893 −$1,893 -100%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before May? Apr 01 $1,968 −$1,968 -100%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April? Mar 26 $3,990 +$6,018 +151%
Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2024? Dec 04 $1,998 +$814 +41%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $9,989 +$1,695 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $27 9m
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $56 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $31 13h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $30 13h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $128 13h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $174 13h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $29 13h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $122 13h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $193 13h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $130 14h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $204 14h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 42h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $99 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $49 7d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $11 13d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 99¢ $307 21d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 65¢ $103 22d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 65¢ $13 22d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 65¢ $66 22d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 65¢ $6 22d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 65¢ $6 22d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 65¢ $7 22d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 20¢ $115 22d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 22d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 20¢ $41 22d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 21¢ $42 22d
First Round Pool C: South Korea vs. Chinese Taipei BUY South Korea 65¢ $40 109d
Will Korea win Pool C at the 2026 World Baseball Classic? SELL Yes $3 110d
Will Korea win Pool C at the 2026 World Baseball Classic? BUY Yes $9 110d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $369.75 · official $369.75 (match) · 56 history records