Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:24:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6fed…0d36 other 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (125 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized +$74 · open −$77
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$331per market
Trades / day125.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$5,936now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% +$2
sports 3% −$3
crypto 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +13.7% +2.9% 25% 25% +4.9%
≤30d 4 +13.7% +2.9% 25% 25% +4.9%
≤90d 4 +13.7% +2.9% 25% 25% +4.9%
all 4 +13.7% +2.9% 25% 25% +4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover125.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.9% 25% +4.9%
10% ← realistic here -6.9% 25% -5.2%
15% -15.9% 25% -14.3%
20% -24.2% 25% -22.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$5 · ×15.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.3 per $1 lost it wins $5.3
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$5,936
Realized+$74
Unrealized−$77
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions16
Markets (closed)4 / 20
History coverage1d
Avg bet$331
Trades / day125.0
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $1,040 $1,042 +$2 (+0%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1,000 $988 −$12 (-1%)
Will France be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? No 76¢ 76¢ $759 $755 −$4 (-1%)
Will Canada reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 76¢ $577 $530 −$47 (-8%)
Will Senegal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 84¢ $500 $509 +$9 (+2%)
Will Switzerland reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 72¢ 69¢ $500 $481 −$19 (-4%)
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 67¢ 68¢ $370 $376 +$6 (+2%)
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $251 $237 −$13 (-5%)
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 71¢ 72¢ $213 $214 +$1 (+1%)
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 74¢ 74¢ $200 $198 −$1 (-1%)
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 86¢ $172 $171 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $110 $110 +$1 (+1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $96 $97 +$1 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $87 $86 −$1 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $83 $82 −$1 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Under 56¢ 56¢ $56 $56 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $134 −$10 -8%
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $123 −$3 -2%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $47 −$2 -5%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $117 +$83 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 71¢ $29 6m
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 71¢ $122 25m
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 71¢ $62 37m
Will France be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY No 76¢ $153 39m
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 68¢ $130 40m
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 50¢ $124 41m
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 50¢ $120 42m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $57 1h
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 50¢ $46 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $84 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $88 1h
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $173 1h
Will Canada reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 77¢ $78 1h
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 74¢ $201 1h
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 50¢ $77 1h
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 53¢ $134 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 45¢ $44 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $47 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $420 2h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 2h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $92 2h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 2h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $59 2h
Will France be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY No 75¢ $3 16h
Will France be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY No 76¢ $114 16h
Will France be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY No 75¢ $79 16h
Will France be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY No 75¢ $69 16h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $13 21h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 21h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,936.03 · official $5,936.11 (match) · 128 history records