Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:29:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6F 0x6feb…e639 other 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,357 (-22%) realized −$1,428 · open +$71
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +238% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +206% what you keep after slip
Net edge+206%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate65%11W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$329per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$971now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$410
7 days−$1,226
14 days−$1,226
30 days−$1,226
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$766
politics 35% −$2,118
sports 4% +$125
crypto 2% +$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+205.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +237.8% +205.7% 65% 59% -33.5%
≤30d 17 +237.8% +205.7% 65% 59% -33.5%
≤90d 17 +237.8% +205.7% 65% 59% -33.5%
all 17 +237.8% +205.7% 65% 59% -33.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +205.7% 59% -33.5%
10% +176.4% 59% -39.9%
15% +149.7% 53% -45.7%
20% +125.2% 47% -51.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +238% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +439% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$129 vs −$441 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$971
Realized−$1,428
Unrealized+$71
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses11 / 6
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)17 / 19
History coverage13d
Avg bet$329
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 63¢ 70¢ $600 $668 +$68 (+11%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $300 $302 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $218 +$126 +58%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $687 −$469 -68%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $370 +$11 +3%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 −$41 -80%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $202 +$88 +44%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $51 −$7 -14%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $51 +$21 +41%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $608 +$609 +100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $321 +$226 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $199 +$123 +62%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $126 +$72 +57%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$8 -76%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -10%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$33 +32%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $66 +$37 +57%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 16 $2,176 −$2,118 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $304 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $342 3h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 63¢ $218 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 23¢ $218 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 72¢ $384 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $370 8h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 1¢ $7 8h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 8h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 8h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $304 17h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $303 17h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 17h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $303 17h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $202 22h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 50¢ $42 22h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 23h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 8¢ $69 23h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $305 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $303 28h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 31h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $321 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $199 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $126 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 79¢ $134 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $970.93 · official $970.63 (match) · 44 history records