Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:21:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6feb…69c8 other 153 markets active 1h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,549 (-1%) realized −$1,551 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate17%26W / 126L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,471per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$355now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$26
14 days+$14
30 days−$237
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$1,242
politics 37% −$105
sports 13% −$236
culture 2% −$5
tech 2% +$1
economics 1% −$3
world 1% −$1
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 38 -4.9% -13.9% 5% 3% -9.8%
≤90d 119 -11.6% -20.0% 8% 3% -10.5%
all 152 -3.2% -12.4% 17% 10% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 10% -10.2%
10% -20.8% 10% -18.8%
15% -28.4% 9% -26.6%
20% -35.5% 8% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,150) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$21 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$355
Realized−$1,551
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses26 / 126
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)152 / 153
History coverage124d
Avg bet$1,471
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 152 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $353 $355 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $1,991 −$2 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $880 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $2,014 −$3 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $3,436 −$5 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5,972 −$6 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $2,268 −$3 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $1,979 −$2 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $3,662 −$5 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $1,308 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,297 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,197 −$2 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 08 $1,347 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $1,314 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,058 −$2 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 07 $43 +$51 +119%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,065 −$2 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $75 −$75 -100%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $767 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 02 $1,261 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $3,056 −$4 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $512 +$1 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $814 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $1,900 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $1,855 −$2 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $1,873 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $539 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $1,796 −$3 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $1,254 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 25 $1,051 −$1 -0%
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres May 25 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $3,951 −$4 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $3,586 −$4 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $1,344 −$2 -0%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $6,034 −$6 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $1,299 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $2,815 −$4 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 19 $634 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $2,321 −$3 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $2,570 −$3 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $2,924 −$3 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $4,009 −$4 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $3,653 −$6 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 08 $1,418 −$2 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $4,878 −$5 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $1,516 −$2 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,488 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $1,486 −$2 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $2,846 −$3 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $1,484 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $611 1h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $612 3h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $879 5h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $880 7h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $550 22h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $551 24h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $738 45h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $739 47h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $922 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $923 3d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $857 3d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $858 3d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $849 4d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $849 4d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $849 4d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $851 4d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 97¢ $353 6d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,306 7d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,308 8d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,295 8d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,297 8d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,195 8d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,197 9d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,308 9d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,310 9d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,345 10d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,347 10d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,312 10d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,314 10d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,056 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $354.82 · official $354.82 (match) · 526 history records