Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:08:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

6F 0x6feb…66b2 other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$137 (+6%) realized +$117 · open +$20

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip

Net edge-26%after slip

Net WR38%break-even

Win rate69%11W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$150per market

Trades / day37.7pace

Kalshi-fit6%portable

Net worth$632now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +38%

net ROI/market (all)-13.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	16	-4.5%	-13.6%	69%	38%	-6.0%
≤30d	16	-4.5%	-13.6%	69%	38%	-6.0%
≤90d	16	-4.5%	-13.6%	69%	38%	-6.0%
all	16	-4.5%	-13.6%	69%	38%	-6.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover37.7 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-13.6%	38%	-6.0%
10% ← realistic here	-21.9%	6%	-15.0%
15%	-29.4%	0%	-23.2%
20%	-36.3%	0%	-30.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 36% · top 2 52% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

36% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -5% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -19% → late +10% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

9.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$20 vs −$72 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.48 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$632

Realized+$117

Unrealized+$20

Win rate (resolved)69%

Wins / losses11 / 5

Open positions3

Markets (closed)16 / 16

History coverage5d

Avg bet$150

Trades / day37.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit6%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54 and 54.5 million views on day 6?	No	86¢	100¢	$502	$581	+$79 (+16%)
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m?	No	83¢	80¢	$50	$48	−$2 (-3%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54.5 and 55 million views on day 6?	Yes	78¢	3¢	$60	$3	−$57 (-96%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	Jun 19	$0	$0	—%
Over $14M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	Jun 19	$0	$0	—%
Over $20M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	Jun 19	$0	$0	—%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week	Jun 19	$317	+$35	+11%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52.5 and 53 million views on day	Jun 18	$144	+$22	+15%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 51.5 and 52 million views on day	Jun 18	$66	+$4	+6%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 52.5 million views on day	Jun 18	$260	+$77	+30%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 51 million views on day 4	Jun 17	$100	+$15	+15%
Will MrBeast's next video get 52 million or more views on day 4?	Jun 17	$12	+$1	+10%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 50 million views on day 4	Jun 17	$200	+$21	+11%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 4	Jun 17	$250	+$16	+6%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 46 million views on day 3	Jun 16	$130	−$130	-100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 37 and 39 million views on day 2	Jun 15	$185	+$11	+6%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 43 and 45 million views on day 2	Jun 15	$20	+$1	+4%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2	Jun 15	$85	+$12	+14%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$15	−$15	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week	SELL Yes	92¢	$28	1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week	SELL Yes	92¢	$46	1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week	SELL Yes	92¢	$50	1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week	SELL Yes	92¢	$27	1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week	SELL Yes	95¢	$47	1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week	SELL Yes	96¢	$34	1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week	SELL Yes	96¢	$100	2h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week	SELL Yes	96¢	$21	2h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54.5 and 55 million views on day	BUY Yes	77¢	$4	11h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54.5 and 55 million views on day	BUY Yes	77¢	$8	11h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54.5 and 55 million views on day	BUY Yes	77¢	$8	13h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54.5 and 55 million views on day	BUY Yes	78¢	$20	13h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54.5 and 55 million views on day	BUY Yes	79¢	$20	13h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54 and 54.5 million views on day	BUY No	83¢	$11	15h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54 and 54.5 million views on day	BUY No	85¢	$20	15h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54 and 54.5 million views on day	BUY No	86¢	$20	15h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54 and 54.5 million views on day	BUY No	87¢	$20	15h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54 and 54.5 million views on day	BUY No	87¢	$20	15h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54 and 54.5 million views on day	BUY No	90¢	$25	16h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54 and 54.5 million views on day	BUY No	90¢	$20	16h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54 and 54.5 million views on day	BUY No	88¢	$18	17h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54 and 54.5 million views on day	BUY No	79¢	$1	17h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54 and 54.5 million views on day	BUY No	80¢	$20	17h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54 and 54.5 million views on day	BUY No	83¢	$20	17h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54 and 54.5 million views on day	BUY No	84¢	$20	17h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54 and 54.5 million views on day	BUY No	85¢	$20	17h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54 and 54.5 million views on day	BUY No	86¢	$20	17h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54 and 54.5 million views on day	BUY No	87¢	$20	17h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54 and 54.5 million views on day	BUY No	88¢	$20	17h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54 and 54.5 million views on day	BUY No	89¢	$20	17h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $631.98 · official $634.31 (match) · 182 history records