trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | No | 51¢ | 50¢ | $34 | $33 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 13 | $40 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 12 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Jun 09 | $32 | −$1 | -3% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 09 | $32 | $0 | -0% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | Jun 08 | $33 | −$1 | -4% |
| Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? | Apr 26 | $105 | −$1 | -1% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? | Apr 23 | $24 | −$1 | -3% |
| Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? | Apr 21 | $13 | $0 | +1% |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Apr 17 | $27 | $0 | -0% |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Apr 14 | $43 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Apr 12 | $232 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Apr 11 | $255 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Apr 11 | $239 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Apr 11 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Apr 10 | $234 | $0 | +0% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | Apr 10 | $234 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Apr 10 | $233 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? | Dec 09 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? | Jun 05 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? | Jun 05 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | May 07 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Mark Few make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of F | Apr 07 | $3 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain beat Stuttgart? | Feb 05 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Will the match between Feyenoord Rotterdam and Bayern Munich end in a | Feb 05 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Trump inauguration be the most viewed ever? | Jan 22 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Trump deportation executive order on Day 1? | Jan 22 | $5 | +$3 | +72% |
| TikTok on the App Store again by Monday? | Jan 20 | $1 | $0 | +20% |
| Will the match between Tottenham and Liverpool end in a draw? | Jan 09 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | -1.5% | -10.9% | 0% | 0% | -11.1% |
| ≤30d | 5 | -1.5% | -10.9% | 0% | 0% | -11.1% |
| ≤90d | 17 | -0.7% | -10.1% | 12% | 0% | -9.8% |
| all | 28 | -10.9% | -19.4% | 32% | 7% | -10.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -19.4% | 7% | -10.1% |
| 10% | -27.1% | 4% | -18.7% |
| 15% | -34.1% | 4% | -26.6% |
| 20% | -40.6% | 4% | -33.8% |