Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:16:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6fe6…69b0 crypto 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$7,555 (-44%) realized −$7,793 · open +$238
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate28%12W / 31L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$378per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$2,358now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$26
14 days−$26
30 days−$1,204
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$3,623
tech 10% −$1,670
finance 7% −$1,088
world 7% −$1,094
economics 4% −$547
sports 2% +$1,043
politics 2% −$169
crypto 1% −$87
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-52.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -52.1% -56.7% 0% 0% -56.3%
≤30d 7 -31.8% -38.3% 29% 29% -94.9%
≤90d 7 -31.8% -38.3% 29% 29% -94.9%
all 43 -47.1% -52.2% 28% 23% -56.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -52.2% 23% -56.6%
10% -56.8% 19% -60.7%
15% -60.9% 16% -64.5%
20% -64.8% 14% -68.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -94% too few recent
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -70% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$121 vs −$288 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$2,358
Realized−$7,793
Unrealized+$238
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses12 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)43 / 45
History coverage174d
Avg bet$378
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? No 64¢ 72¢ $2,100 $2,350 +$250 (+12%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 15¢ 6¢ $20 $8 −$12 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5AM ET Jun 29 $25 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 08 $10 +$9 +92%
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? Jun 08 $1,185 −$1,167 -98%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 02 $20 −$19 -97%
US government shutdown Saturday? Mar 30 $24 −$24 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 30 $50 −$50 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Mar 21 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026? Mar 21 $6,568 −$2,590 -39%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? Mar 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Feb 28 $110 +$14 +13%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase February 3-9? Feb 11 $20 +$7 +37%
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? Feb 04 $10 +$3 +26%
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28? Feb 03 $503 −$503 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 02 $40 +$35 +88%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 2? Feb 02 $140 +$11 +8%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Jan 30 $132 −$124 -93%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 30 $100 −$93 -93%
Will Trump say "Friend of Mine" during WEF Address on January 21? Jan 29 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Powell say "Job" 15+ times during January press conference? Jan 29 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during January press conference? Jan 29 $328 +$1,043 +318%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 28? Jan 29 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 25+ times during W Jan 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump say "Hell" 5+ times during WEF Address on January 21? Jan 29 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Trump say "American Dream" during WEF Address on January 21? Jan 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during January press conference? Jan 29 $156 −$156 -100%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? Jan 28 $116 −$116 -100%
Cerebras IPO before 2027? Jan 28 $1,458 −$1,458 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on January 20? Jan 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump say "Woke" or "DEI" during WEF Address on January 21? Jan 21 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Trump say "Ass" during WEF Address on January 21? Jan 21 $20 −$17 -83%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on January 16? Jan 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on January 14? Jan 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on January 18? Jan 15 $25 −$7 -28%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 15 $100 +$12 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 17? Jan 14 $25 +$17 +66%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on January 13? Jan 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Jan 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: MicroStrategy Jan 11 $500 +$294 +59%
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by March 31? Jan 08 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 21d
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? SELL No 0¢ $18 21d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 27d
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? BUY No 6¢ $135 43d
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $2,130 43d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $1,000 99d
Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,981 99d
Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $789 99d
Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $496 99d
Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $131 112d
US forces enter Iran by March 14? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 112d
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? BUY Yes 36¢ $100 112d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 53¢ $124 121d
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? SELL 70k 77¢ $13 144d
Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $13 146d
Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $218 146d
Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $48 146d
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28? BUY No 28¢ $3 146d
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28? BUY No 29¢ $500 146d
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? BUY 70k 61¢ $10 146d
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase February 3-9? BUY Yes 73¢ $20 146d
Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $255 146d
Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $64 146d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,358.20 · official $2,358.20 (match) · 166 history records