Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:02:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
6F 0x6fe2…576c crypto 62 markets active 0h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$459 (+17%) realized +$459 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate47%29W / 33L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$22
14 days−$22
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$19
crypto 43% +$379
politics 8% −$7
other 6% −$11
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -9.6% -18.2% 41% 35% -15.7%
≤30d 25 -18.8% -26.5% 36% 28% -18.1%
≤90d 62 -15.7% -23.7% 47% 29% +3.3%
all 62 -15.7% -23.7% 47% 29% +3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 29% +3.3%
10% -31.0% 24% -6.6%
15% -37.7% 18% -15.6%
20% -43.8% 10% -23.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$7 · ×3.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.77 per $1 lost it wins $2.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$459
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses29 / 33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)62 / 62
History coverage63d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 62 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 23 $30 −$27 -89%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $118 −$14 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 23 $34 +$9 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$7 +14%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $28 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 23 $7 +$3 +45%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$3 -67%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $4 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $3 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 22 $1 +$2 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 22 $6 −$5 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$2 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 22 $8 −$2 -30%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 28 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 28 $1 +$3 +278%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 24 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 19 $26 −$12 -47%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 19 $14 +$13 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 19 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9PM ET May 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 16 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 02 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 30, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Apr 30 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Apr 30 $8 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Apr 30 $12 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Apr 30 $16 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Apr 30 $9 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Apr 30 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Apr 30 $6 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Apr 30 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Apr 29 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Apr 29 $2 $0 +3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Apr 29 $4 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 24 $6 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $30 7m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 65¢ $30 9m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $33 17m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 67¢ $33 18m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $42 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 83¢ $42 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $21 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $18 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $18 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $9 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 85¢ $9 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $7 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $4 30h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 67¢ $4 30h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $4 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 160 history records