Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:22:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6F 0x6fdc…0367 crypto 108 markets active 1h ago coverage 253d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$73 (+1%) realized +$56 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate71%75W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$185now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$81
other 7% −$42
finance 1% +$2
tech 1% +$6
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +3.6% -6.3% 100% 0% -6.2%
≤30d 9 -7.1% -15.9% 89% 11% -10.8%
≤90d 28 -7.0% -15.9% 75% 11% -8.1%
all 105 -1.2% -10.7% 71% 24% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 24% -9.2%
10% -19.2% 9% -17.9%
15% -27.0% 7% -25.8%
20% -34.2% 6% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$13 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

253d coverage
Net worth$185
Realized+$56
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses75 / 30
Open positions3
Markets (closed)105 / 108
History coverage253d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 76¢ 95¢ $72 $90 +$18 (+25%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 87¢ 87¢ $69 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 66¢ 64¢ $26 $26 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,700 (LOW) in June? Jun 21 $65 +$2 +4%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in June? Jun 21 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 04 $63 +$8 +12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 02 $67 −$66 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 31 $552 +$15 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? May 29 $28 +$2 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May? May 28 $78 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 25 $210 +$3 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 23 $270 +$15 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 21 $9 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 18 $25 −$1 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 18 $117 +$19 +16%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? May 18 $39 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 15 $55 +$3 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 01 $162 +$30 +18%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 29 $193 +$5 +3%
Will Chainlink dip to $4 by December 31, 2026? Apr 21 $44 −$4 -8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? Apr 13 $62 +$2 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? Apr 08 $21 +$1 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? Apr 05 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? Apr 05 $60 +$2 +2%
Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026? Apr 02 $10 $0 -4%
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? Apr 02 $15 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? Apr 02 $90 +$5 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 30 $561 +$15 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Mar 26 $354 +$28 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Mar 26 $41 −$27 -66%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 23 $108 +$3 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Mar 19 $293 +$26 +9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? Mar 13 $183 +$9 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March? Mar 10 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Mar 09 $167 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 February 23-March 1? Feb 28 $142 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Feb 27 $136 +$6 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 25 $124 +$12 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Feb 23 $32 +$4 +14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 14 $26 +$6 +22%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? Feb 05 $25 +$1 +4%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of February? Feb 04 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of February? Feb 04 $15 +$2 +12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in February? Feb 03 $117 −$18 -16%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Feb 03 $20 $0 +2%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of February? Feb 03 $60 −$12 -21%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Feb 03 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? Feb 03 $20 $0 -1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? Feb 02 $60 +$6 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in February? Feb 01 $89 −$89 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? Jan 30 $271 +$15 +6%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,400 by end of February? Jan 30 $40 +$3 +7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June? Jan 30 $4 −$2 -53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 86¢ $34 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 65¢ $16 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 68¢ $10 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,700 (LOW) in June? SELL No 96¢ $67 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in June? SELL No 99¢ $20 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 76¢ $72 17d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? SELL No 95¢ $71 17d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 88¢ $35 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? BUY No 75¢ $15 19d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 83¢ $25 19d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 84¢ $17 19d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 84¢ $13 19d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? BUY No 85¢ $17 19d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 84¢ $8 19d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? BUY No 86¢ $26 19d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? BUY No 86¢ $9 19d
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,700 (LOW) in June? BUY No 92¢ $37 19d
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in June? BUY No 96¢ $19 20d
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,700 (LOW) in June? BUY No 94¢ $28 20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? SELL No 99¢ $16 20d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? SELL No 99¢ $29 23d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? SELL No 92¢ $46 23d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? SELL No 92¢ $61 23d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May? SELL No 93¢ $79 23d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May? BUY No 91¢ $55 24d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May? BUY No 93¢ $23 24d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? BUY No 94¢ $17 24d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? BUY No 93¢ $10 24d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? SELL No 95¢ $8 25d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? SELL No 95¢ $117 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $185.29 · official $185.29 (match) · 555 history records