Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:53:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6fda…3e79 politics 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$12 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 29L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$514per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$1,184now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 56% −$19
other 21% −$3
crypto 15% −$7
world 6% −$1
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 30 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,054) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$1,184
Realized−$12
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)30 / 32
History coverage82d
Avg bet$514
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,137 $1,137 −$1 (-0%)
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $1,118 $0 +0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 23 $1,054 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $1,102 −$2 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 22 $64 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $1,216 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $1,179 −$4 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 15 $81 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $35 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $20 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $48 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $1,034 −$3 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $1,033 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $1,043 −$2 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $1,085 −$6 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $55 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $1,159 −$1 -0%
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 12 $1,049 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 10? May 11 $44 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? May 10 $1,122 −$3 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidenti May 10 $21 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi May 10 $999 −$1 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $151 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $160 in April? Apr 08 $69 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $27 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 05 $189 $0 -0%
Tom Hardy announced as next James Bond? Apr 05 $27 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? Apr 05 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 02 $151 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 02 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Nashville Predators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 02 $23 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,092 0m
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 9m
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 23m
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 34m
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $744 53m
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $307 1h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 1h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $1,054 1h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,101 20h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $64 20h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $29 20h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,057 20h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $28 20h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,214 20h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $7 20h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $12 20h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,195 21h
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $933 21h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $21 21h
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $242 21h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 21h
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1,179 21h
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $81 39d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $65 39d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $35 39d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 39d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 39d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 39d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 39d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,183.52 · official $1,183.52 (match) · 98 history records