Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:15:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
6F 0x6fd8…d451 crypto 35 markets active 0h ago coverage 208d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate97%32W / 1L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$5
crypto 2% +$14
tech 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)+5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 1 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 33 +16.6% +5.5% 97% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.5% 3% -9.4%
10% -4.6% 3% -18.0%
15% -13.8% 3% -26.0%
20% -22.3% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.82 per $1 lost it wins $2.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

208d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses32 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)33 / 35
History coverage208d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of XRP be between $0.70 and $0.80 on June 18? No 100¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 18? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on May 22? May 23 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on February 22? Mar 14 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on February 2 Mar 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 13 $4,987 −$5 -0%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 01 $3 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.20 before 2026? Jan 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $2.20 and $2.30 on December 28? Dec 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on December 28? Dec 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on December 28 Dec 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $140 and $150 on December 22? Dec 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on December 24? Dec 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on December 24? Dec 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 22? Dec 25 $3 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on December 24? Dec 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3,300 on December 24? Dec 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on December 22? Dec 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $1.50 on December 22? Dec 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on December 18? Dec 20 $2 $0 +10%
Will the price of XRP be between $2.20 and $2.30 on December 18? Dec 20 $4 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3,600 on December 18? Dec 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on December 5? Dec 07 $3 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 5? Dec 07 $4 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on December 5? Dec 07 $3 +$13 +525%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? Dec 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will Airbnb (ABNB) close above $80 end of November? Dec 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $585 end of November? Dec 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.80 in November? Dec 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $2.20 and $2.30 on November 23? Nov 23 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.70 on November 23? Nov 23 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,500 and $3,600 on November 20 Nov 22 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,400 and $3,500 on November 20 Nov 22 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $100 on November 21? Nov 22 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of XRP be between $0.70 and $0.80 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $5 26m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $3 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on February 2 BUY No 100¢ $5 110d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on February 22? BUY No 100¢ $4 113d
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $4,982 152d
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $4,987 153d
Will XRP reach $3.20 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $4 166d
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $3 167d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $3 168d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on December 28 BUY No 100¢ $3 170d
Will the price of XRP be between $2.20 and $2.30 on December 28? BUY No 100¢ $3 171d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on December 28? BUY No 100¢ $3 171d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3,300 on December 24? BUY No 100¢ $3 174d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on December 24? BUY No 100¢ $2 174d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on December 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 174d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on December 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 174d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on December 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $4 175d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 22? BUY Yes 99¢ $3 175d
Will the price of XRP be less than $1.50 on December 22? BUY No 100¢ $4 175d
Will the price of Solana be between $140 and $150 on December 22? BUY No 100¢ $2 175d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3,600 on December 18? BUY No 100¢ $4 180d
Will the price of XRP be between $2.20 and $2.30 on December 18? BUY No 99¢ $4 181d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on December 18? BUY Yes 91¢ $2 181d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on December 5? BUY No 16¢ $3 192d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on December 5? BUY No 96¢ $3 192d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 5? BUY Yes 99¢ $4 193d
Will XRP reach $3.80 in November? BUY No 100¢ $4 199d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $3 200d
Will Airbnb (ABNB) close above $80 end of November? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 201d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.67 · official $6.67 (match) · 68 history records