Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:49:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
6F 0x6fd4…4fa0 other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$11,458 (-42%) realized −$11,062 · open −$396
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -95% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -96% what you keep after slip
Net edge-96%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,515per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$11,322now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% −$7,381
other 27% −$60
politics 24% −$107
sports 8% −$2,213
culture 3% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-95.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 3 -94.8% -95.3% 0% 0% -99.8%
≤90d 3 -94.8% -95.3% 0% 0% -99.8%
all 3 -94.8% -95.3% 0% 0% -99.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -95.3% 0% -99.8%
10% ← realistic here -95.7% 0% -99.8%
15% -96.1% 0% -99.8%
20% -96.5% 0% -99.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -95% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$3,120 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$11,322
Realized−$11,062
Unrealized−$396
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions15
Markets (closed)3 / 18
History coverage16d
Avg bet$1,515
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Yes 75¢ 76¢ $4,093 $4,107 +$14 (+0%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Yes 82¢ 80¢ $2,111 $2,058 −$53 (-2%)
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? No 87¢ 86¢ $1,705 $1,692 −$14 (-1%)
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $1,000 $1,012 +$12 (+1%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 78¢ $880 $853 −$27 (-3%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 57¢ 60¢ $520 $543 +$23 (+4%)
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $300 $282 −$18 (-6%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 65¢ 71¢ $200 $218 +$18 (+9%)
Natural Disaster in 2026? No 75¢ 76¢ $200 $204 +$4 (+2%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 89¢ 25¢ $500 $142 −$358 (-72%)
World Cup: Largest Margin of Victory Record Broken? No 94¢ 94¢ $140 $140 +$0 (+0%)
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
World Cup: Highest Scoring Match Record Broken? No 94¢ 95¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Will Greece recognize Palestine before 2027? No 85¢ 88¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+4%)
No one announced as next James Bond? Yes 86¢ 96¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 18 $2,213 −$2,213 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 18 $7,021 −$7,021 -100%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 10 $148 −$125 -84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? BUY Yes 80¢ $47 1h
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $173 1h
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? BUY Yes 81¢ $40 8h
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $313 10h
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $42 10h
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $358 11h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 89¢ $500 23h
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? BUY Yes 79¢ $199 29h
World Cup: Largest Margin of Victory Record Broken? BUY No 94¢ $140 34h
World Cup: Highest Scoring Match Record Broken? BUY No 94¢ $16 34h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 81¢ $885 34h
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? BUY Yes 79¢ $225 35h
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? BUY Yes 79¢ $100 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $203 2d
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? BUY Yes 76¢ $1,007 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $4,287 4d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $7 4d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $64 4d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $937 4d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $244 4d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $217 4d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $321 4d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $25 4d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $1 4d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $28 4d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $129 5d
No one announced as next James Bond? BUY Yes 86¢ $5 5d
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? BUY Yes 75¢ $3,116 6d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $408 6d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $647 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,321.59 · official $11,321.59 (match) · 58 history records