Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:45:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6F 0x6fd4…5cfc weather 1378 markets active 2h ago coverage 51d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 51d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$684 (-4%) realized −$651 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate62%832W / 508L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day39.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$718now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days−$30
14 days+$0
30 days−$284
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 79% −$273
crypto 18% −$625
sports 1% +$114
world 1% +$14
politics 0% −$43
tech 0% −$2
other 0% −$13
economics 0% −$14
culture 0% +$2
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 129 +1.6% -8.1% 68% 68% -10.7%
≤30d 605 -3.7% -12.9% 61% 61% -11.8%
≤90d 1340 -3.3% -12.5% 62% 60% -13.5%
all 1340 -3.3% -12.5% 62% 60% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 60% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 59% -21.8%
15% -28.5% 55% -29.3%
20% -35.5% 28% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$14 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$718
Realized−$651
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses832 / 508
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions38
Markets (closed)1340 / 1378
History coverage51d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day39.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 38 History 1340 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 15? No 68¢ 100¢ $28 $41 +$13 (+47%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 15? No 67¢ 100¢ $27 $40 +$13 (+49%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 16? No 68¢ 56¢ $34 $27 −$6 (-19%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16? No 61¢ 60¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-2%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on June 16? No 72¢ 64¢ $30 $27 −$4 (-12%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 17? No 63¢ 68¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 17? No 62¢ 62¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? No 67¢ 64¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 17? No 62¢ 59¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? No 66¢ 100¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+51%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 15? No 73¢ 100¢ $11 $15 +$4 (+38%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? No 54¢ 72¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+33%)
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 20¢ 24¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 16? No 72¢ 88¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? No 70¢ 82¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 16? No 70¢ 78¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 17? No 62¢ 65¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 16? No 73¢ 75¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 16? No 67¢ 69¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 16? No 73¢ 50¢ $15 $10 −$4 (-31%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 16? No 72¢ 72¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 46¢ 44¢ $10 $10 −$1 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? No 64¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? No 67¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $11 +$4 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 16 $28 +$10 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 15? Jun 16 $10 +$4 +35%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Jun 16 $33 +$17 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$4 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $12 +$9 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$4 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$4 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$7 +66%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$4 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $37 +$17 +45%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $11 +$17 +158%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 14? Jun 15 $10 +$4 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Jun 15 $10 +$5 +47%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 14? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? Jun 15 $10 +$4 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$7 +68%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 +$3 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$4 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $27 +$10 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$4 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 14 $17 +$9 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 13? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 13? Jun 14 $26 +$15 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 13? Jun 14 $32 +$12 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 15? Jun 14 $10 +$4 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 13 $10 +$4 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$5 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 +$3 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $28 +$11 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$4 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 67¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 62¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 62¢ $20 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 63¢ $20 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 64¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 72¢ $10 7h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 63¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16? BUY No 61¢ $28 7h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 66¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $16 11h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 73¢ $10 13h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 68¢ $34 15h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? BUY No 54¢ $10 15h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? BUY No 67¢ $10 24h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 71¢ $10 24h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY No 73¢ $15 24h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 72¢ $10 25h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun BUY No 72¢ $31 25h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 15? BUY No 71¢ $22 26h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 70¢ $10 26h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 70¢ $10 27h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 72¢ $10 28h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 72¢ $10 28h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 65¢ $33 30h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 57¢ $12 30h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 68¢ $28 31h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 16? BUY No 62¢ $8 31h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 16? BUY No 67¢ $10 31h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 67¢ $10 36h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 73¢ $11 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $718.26 · official $724.23 (match) · 3500 history records