Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:09:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6fd3…3d7a sports 382 markets active 1h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,068 (-8%) realized −$7,960 · open −$108
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate55%208W / 173L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$280per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Fees−$341est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$99
7 days−$482
14 days+$14
30 days−$1,335
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$9,374
crypto 4% +$165
other 0% −$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -25.7% -32.8% 45% 45% -44.5%
≤30d 65 -16.1% -24.1% 37% 35% -22.4%
≤90d 119 -8.4% -17.1% 44% 43% -13.9%
all 381 -4.6% -13.7% 55% 49% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 49% -17.7%
10% -22.0% 39% -25.5%
15% -29.5% 29% -32.7%
20% -36.4% 21% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$145 vs −$228 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7,960
Unrealized−$108
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses208 / 173
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$341
Open positions1
Markets (closed)381 / 382
History coverage171d
Avg bet$280
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 381 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Playoffs D family 45¢ 0¢ $109 $0 −$108 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 159 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 26 $101 −$99 -98%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $42 +$58 +140%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 21 $12 +$2 +16%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $64 −$63 -98%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $91 −$89 -98%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $101 +$56 +56%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $168 −$168 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $174 −$174 -100%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $208 +$152 +73%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $193 −$190 -98%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qu Jun 21 $102 +$32 +32%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $114 −$113 -99%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $97 −$97 -100%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $100 +$60 +60%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $190 −$17 -9%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $34 −$33 -97%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Noir Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $113 −$51 -45%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 14 $186 +$394 +211%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $232 −$42 -18%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $144 +$285 +197%
Dota 2: Dandelions vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 14 $314 −$64 -20%
Dota 2: Dandelions vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 +$4 +122%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Gro Jun 14 $67 $0 +0%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $49 −$49 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $74 −$74 -100%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $42 −$42 -100%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $45 −$45 -100%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $158 −$158 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $187 +$263 +141%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Carstensz (BO3) - EPL World Series Southe Jun 14 $78 −$77 -100%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Gr Jun 13 $105 +$495 +474%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $101 +$34 +33%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $67 −$67 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $53 −$53 -100%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $136 +$102 +75%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 12 $194 −$191 -98%
Dota 2: Ramzes Club vs TPaBoMaH Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $75 +$31 +42%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 12 $304 +$296 +97%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $118 −$118 -100%
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Open Jun 12 $99 −$99 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $333 +$336 +101%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $581 −$255 -44%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $147 +$203 +138%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $249 −$249 -100%
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs Jun 06 $92 +$157 +170%
Dota 2: Ramzes Club vs TPaBoMaH Club (BO3) - Winline Star Series Playo Jun 06 $85 −$84 -99%
Dota 2: TeamDk vs Amaru Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $294 +$156 +53%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $106 −$104 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea BUY D family 39¢ $36 1h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea BUY D family 49¢ $5 1h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea BUY D family 49¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea BUY D family 49¢ $67 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Team Bald 22¢ $12 15h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Team Bald 22¢ $33 15h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Team Bald 22¢ $56 15h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 41¢ $42 5d
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY MODUS 21¢ $9 5d
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY MODUS 21¢ $1 5d
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY MODUS 21¢ $54 5d
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner BUY MODUS 18¢ $91 5d
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY Natus Vincere 86¢ $12 5d
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner SELL Zero Tenacity 100¢ $157 5d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 28¢ $56 5d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 28¢ $25 5d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 28¢ $2 5d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 28¢ $7 5d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 28¢ $10 5d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 28¢ $68 5d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 28¢ $84 5d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 30¢ $10 5d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 30¢ $9 5d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 30¢ $12 5d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 30¢ $2 5d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 30¢ $4 5d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 30¢ $4 5d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 30¢ $50 5d
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 64¢ $96 5d
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 60¢ $4 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.12 · official $0.12 (match) · 1966 history records