Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:55:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6fd3…d057 sports 137 markets active 2h ago coverage 642d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$331 (+1%) realized +$307 · open +$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%63W / 73L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$248per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$262
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$1,992
politics 6% +$1,351
other 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 22 -27.2% -34.2% 45% 41% -21.8%
≤90d 22 -27.2% -34.2% 45% 41% -21.8%
all 136 -2.9% -12.1% 46% 43% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 43% -11.5%
10% -20.5% 41% -19.9%
15% -28.2% 36% -27.7%
20% -35.2% 27% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -11% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$167 vs −$153 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

642d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized+$307
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses63 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)136 / 137
History coverage642d
Avg bet$248
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs MOUZ 67¢ 100¢ $50 $74 +$24 (+48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Team Yandex win BLAST Slam VII? Jun 09 $101 +$42 +41%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $152 +$75 +50%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 09 $303 +$137 +45%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $203 −$200 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the BLAST Slam VII Grand Final be a reverse sweep? Jun 07 $51 −$50 -97%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $50 −$50 -99%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $51 +$33 +65%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $51 −$50 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $51 −$4 -9%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $51 +$1 +3%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Jun 04 $51 +$40 +78%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $51 −$50 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $51 −$50 -98%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Wester Jun 02 $102 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualifier May 31 $51 +$32 +62%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 30 $50 +$21 +42%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 30 $51 +$47 +93%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 30 $252 +$75 +30%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $51 −$50 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $51 −$50 -98%
Dota 2: Heroic vs Team Liquid (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 15 $50 +$28 +56%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 15 $50 +$35 +70%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 15 $169 −$22 -13%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid (BO5) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 15 $250 +$138 +55%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 14 $301 +$55 +18%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 13 $700 −$700 -100%
Dota 2: Heroic vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 13 $102 −$16 -16%
Dota 2: Heroic vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Mar 12 $33 +$69 +208%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Mar 11 $95 +$7 +8%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Mar 11 $85 +$38 +45%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Mar 11 $170 +$123 +72%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 10 $50 +$21 +43%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 10 $50 +$25 +49%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Mar 08 $135 −$135 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Natus Vincere - Game 4 Winner Feb 15 $986 +$58 +6%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Natus Vincere - Game 3 Winner Feb 15 $1,000 +$408 +41%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Feb 15 $1,106 −$1,106 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Feb 15 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Feb 15 $1,245 −$67 -5%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Natus Vincere - Game 4 Winner Feb 14 $150 −$150 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $700 −$700 -100%
Packers vs. Bears Feb 08 $20 +$36 +178%
Patriots vs. Broncos Feb 08 $200 +$145 +72%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner Feb 08 $100 +$257 +257%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Slam Play-In Feb 08 $55 −$55 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner Feb 07 $63 −$63 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY MOUZ 67¢ $50 1h
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 68¢ $303 16d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 44¢ $203 16d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Yandex 69¢ $101 16d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Yandex 62¢ $51 16d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 20¢ $80 16d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 20¢ $1 16d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 20¢ $19 16d
Will Team Yandex win BLAST Slam VII? BUY Yes 75¢ $50 16d
Will Team Yandex win BLAST Slam VII? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 17d
Will the BLAST Slam VII Grand Final be a reverse sweep? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 17d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY BetBoom Team 67¢ $50 17d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Aurora 60¢ $51 18d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 48¢ $51 18d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 48¢ $51 20d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Aurora 47¢ $51 20d
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Wester BUY Natus Vincere 35¢ $51 21d
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Wester BUY Natus Vincere 53¢ $51 21d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Team Falcons 54¢ $51 22d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Aurora 48¢ $51 22d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western BUY LGD Gaming 55¢ $51 23d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 50¢ $10 24d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualifier BUY Aurora 61¢ $51 24d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY BetBoom Team 76¢ $201 25d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Yandex 56¢ $51 25d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Liquid 70¢ $50 25d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY LGD Gaming 51¢ $51 25d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY BetBoom Team 79¢ $50 25d
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Aurora 40¢ $51 26d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid (BO5) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs SELL Team Liquid 53¢ $114 100d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.04 · official $74.04 (match) · 722 history records