Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:07:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
6F 0x6fd2…f9ae other 282 markets active 1h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,215 (+14%) realized +$1,216 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate62%170W / 105L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$17
14 days−$17
30 days+$93
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% +$871
sports 17% +$302
world 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -34.3% -40.6% 50% 50% -51.4%
≤30d 10 +24.2% +12.3% 60% 50% +5.8%
≤90d 170 -31.6% -38.1% 40% 38% -25.0%
all 275 +16.8% +5.6% 62% 60% +3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.6% 60% +3.0%
10% -4.5% 55% -6.8%
15% -13.7% 46% -15.8%
20% -22.2% 33% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +67% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$20 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized+$1,216
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses170 / 105
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)275 / 282
History coverage234d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 275 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $22 −$22 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 +$5 +31%
Will Burgos CF win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $51 +$22 +43%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $25 +$101 +401%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-05-17? May 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Hannover 96 win on 2026-05-17? May 25 $46 −$46 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 +$11 +107%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $51 +$25 +50%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 19 $301 +$29 +10%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $15 +$21 +139%
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Ethan Quinn May 17 $301 +$18 +6%
Will Real Racing Club win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $38 +$18 +48%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? May 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 16 $289 +$42 +14%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 14 $181 +$39 +21%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $27 +$28 +106%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-11? May 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? May 13 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $25 −$25 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $15 +$7 +44%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $26 +$23 +87%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-04-18? May 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-03? May 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Real Racing Club vs. SD Huesca end in a draw? May 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-04-16? May 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw? May 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-02? May 09 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-05-03? May 09 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-16? May 09 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Real Sociedad win Copa Del Rey? May 09 $40 −$40 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-26? May 09 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-03? May 09 $34 −$34 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? May 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Real Zaragoza win on 2026-05-01? May 09 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié vs. SC Braga end in a draw? May 09 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $96 +$35 +36%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $20 +$16 +80%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $5 +$9 +176%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $15 +$3 +21%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $15 +$10 +69%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $15 +$7 +46%
Will Sevilla FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw? May 04 $26 −$10 -41%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $47 +$45 +95%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $15 +$3 +23%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $61 +$34 +56%
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Pr May 03 $50 +$20 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $81 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06 BUY 14¢ $29 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AN BUY 30¢ $14 36h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06 BUY 29¢ $15 36h
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran BUY Yes 78¢ $22 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 24¢ $26 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 38¢ $15 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 43¢ $15 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 93¢ $20 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $15 6d
Will Burgos CF win on 2026-05-31? SELL Yes 93¢ $72 16d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 17d
Will Burgos CF win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 19d
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 97¢ $21 23d
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 23d
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 28d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? BUY Yes 91¢ $301 30d
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 30d
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 30d
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 30d
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 30d
Will Elche CF win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $37 30d
Will Elche CF win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $15 30d
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Ethan Quinn SELL Tommy Paul 100¢ $319 30d
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Ethan Quinn BUY Tommy Paul 94¢ $301 30d
Will Hannover 96 win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 30d
Will Hannover 96 win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 30d
Will Hannover 96 win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 30d
Will Real Racing Club win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 31d
Will Real Racing Club win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $28 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.47 · official $79.47 (match) · 765 history records