Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:52:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6fd1…6935 politics 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 376d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate18%14W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$5
other 39% −$5
sports 5% $0
culture 4% $0
crypto 3% $0
world 2% −$3
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.2% -10.6% 40% 20% -9.6%
≤30d 11 -11.6% -20.0% 18% 9% -9.9%
≤90d 12 -10.6% -19.1% 17% 8% -9.9%
all 77 -6.9% -15.7% 18% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 3% -9.7%
10% -23.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -31.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -37.9% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

376d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses14 / 63
Open positions1
Markets (closed)77 / 78
History coverage376d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $1 $0 -18%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $241 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $73 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $4 $0 +12%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $73 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $161 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $78 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $1 $0 -19%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $165 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $80 −$1 -2%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $79 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 06 $81 $0 -0%
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legisla Feb 09 $80 $0 +0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 09 $84 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026? Feb 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 31 $84 −$1 -1%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 27 $162 $0 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 20, 2026 (ET)? Jan 24 $81 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 19? Jan 20 $82 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 18 $163 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 13? Jan 14 $82 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 10 $82 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 08 $80 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 03 $1 $0 -17%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 03 $80 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 01 $82 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 31 $82 $0 +0%
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22? Dec 26 $83 $0 +0%
Wicked vs Avatar: Bigger Domestic Opening Weekend? Dec 23 $79 $0 +0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 20 $87 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 20 $166 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 17 $84 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $83 $0 -0%
Will Stable launch a token in 2025? Dec 08 $85 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 06 $82 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 05 $82 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 03 $83 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 01 $84 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 26 $167 $0 -0%
Will David Williams win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? Nov 24 $85 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Nov 21 $85 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 18 $81 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 17 $153 $0 -0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 14 $1 $0 -33%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 03 $85 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 01 $83 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 30 $83 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 23 $83 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 19 $82 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $77 1h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $77 33h
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 33h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $73 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $73 4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 4d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 4d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 6d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $73 6d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $73 10d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 12d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 12d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $74 12d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $74 14d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 14d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 16d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $78 16d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $78 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes $1 21d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 21d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $79 21d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $79 25d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 25d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 28d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 83¢ $78 28d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 83¢ $80 32d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $79 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.48 · official $0.48 (match) · 428 history records