Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:24:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6fcf…af89 politics 231 markets active 1h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$62 (-1%) realized −$62 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate34%78W / 152L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$9
sports 24% −$12
politics 22% −$3
finance 14% −$39
crypto 8% −$1
world 2% −$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 20 -0.8% -10.2% 10% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 120 -0.4% -9.9% 19% 0% -11.4%
all 230 -1.4% -10.8% 34% 0% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 0% -10.8%
10% -19.3% 0% -19.3%
15% -27.1% 0% -27.1%
20% -34.3% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses78 / 152
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)230 / 231
History coverage141d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 230 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 89¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $28 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 29 $8 $0 -1%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $8 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $9 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $17 $0 -2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 29 $7 $0 -5%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $11 $0 -0%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 29 $10 $0 -2%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $34 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $28 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $6 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $18 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $23 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 28 $9 $0 -1%
Trump out as President before 2027? May 28 $15 $0 -2%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $5 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $23 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7AM ET May 19 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8AM ET May 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $11 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $16 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 16 $15 $0 -0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele May 16 $14 −$1 -6%
Netanyahu out by June 30? May 16 $9 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2PM ET May 14 $6 −$2 -33%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 14 $7 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $7 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $6 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 14 $19 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 13 $7 $0 -0%
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? May 13 $20 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $25 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $7 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $35 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $8 $0 -0%
Spread: Burnley FC (-1.5) May 10 $10 $0 +4%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 08 $13 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $37 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $7 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5AM ET May 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $7 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $16 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? May 07 $10 $0 -1%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $10 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $14 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $7 1h
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $6 1h
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $6 18d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $8 18d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $8 18d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $8 18d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 18d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 18d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 18d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 74¢ $10 18d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 74¢ $10 19d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $7 19d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $7 19d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $6 19d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $6 19d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 71¢ $10 19d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 71¢ $10 19d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $6 19d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $6 19d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $7 19d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $7 19d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 19d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 19d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $6 19d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $6 19d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $9 19d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $9 19d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.93 · official $6.93 (match) · 919 history records