Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:29:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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6F 0x6fcd…58b9 crypto 1846 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d only
✗ bot/MM pace (164 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$209 (-3%) realized −$212 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%1095W / 750L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day163.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$98
7 days+$194
14 days+$300
30 days+$300
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$302
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (164 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1173 +3.4% -6.5% 60% 60% -5.9%
≤30d 1845 +3.5% -6.3% 59% 59% -6.0%
≤90d 1845 +3.5% -6.3% 59% 59% -6.0%
all 1845 +3.5% -6.3% 59% 59% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover163.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.3% 59% -6.0%
10% ← realistic here -15.3% 59% -15.0%
15% -23.5% 59% -23.2%
20% -31.0% 59% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 0% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$212
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses1095 / 750
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1845 / 1846
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day163.5
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1845 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Up 59¢ 98¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 196 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $4 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $4 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $4 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $4 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $4 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.64 · official $5.80 (match) · 3500 history records