Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:57:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6fcb…e907 crypto 36 markets active 458d ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL −$108,495 (-49%) realized −$108,495 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -60% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -70% what you keep after slip
Net edge-70%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate14%5W / 31L
Whale WR22%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6,099per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$92,178
other 6% −$13,757
tech 3% −$600
politics 0% −$597
economics 0% −$421
world 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-64.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 36 -60.4% -64.2% 14% 8% -52.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -64.2% 8% -52.7%
10% ← realistic here -67.6% 6% -57.2%
15% -70.7% 3% -61.4%
20% -73.6% 3% -65.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -60% · $-wt -55% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 22% (≥$7,033) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -52% → late -69% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
13.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,940 vs −$3,786 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$108,495
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses5 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)22%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage68d
Avg bet$6,099
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum above $2,000 on March 28? Mar 28 $226 −$226 -100%
Will Solana hit $190 in March? Mar 23 $24,898 −$24,807 -100%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Solana hit $250 in March? Mar 20 $540 −$530 -98%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 18 $140 −$140 -100%
Ripple above $2.45 on March 14? Mar 14 $228 −$228 -100%
Solana above $145 on March 14? Mar 13 $382 −$382 -100%
Will Solana dip to $120 in March? Mar 05 $303 +$57 +19%
Will Solana dip to $130 in March? Mar 04 $1,378 −$191 -14%
Solana all time high by March 31? Mar 02 $1,868 −$1,868 -100%
Will Solana hit $170 in March? Mar 02 $14,322 +$8,238 +58%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? Mar 01 $239 −$60 -25%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025? Feb 27 $212 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin above $99,000 on February 28? Feb 27 $282 −$245 -87%
Solana above $175 on February 28? Feb 27 $18,371 −$18,156 -99%
Will Solana dip to $140 by February 28 2025? Feb 24 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Solana hit $250 by February 28 2025? Feb 24 $14,706 −$14,395 -98%
Will Solana dip to $160 by February 28 2025? Feb 24 $7,506 −$2,413 -32%
Solana above $200 on February 21? Feb 19 $5,765 −$5,764 -100%
Will Solana hit $300 by February 28 2025? Feb 19 $473 −$459 -97%
Will Solana hit $275 by February 28 2025? Feb 19 $40 −$33 -82%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by February 28, 2025? Feb 14 $6,092 −$1,072 -18%
Solana above $190 on February 14? Feb 14 $9,205 −$5,020 -54%
Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 14? Feb 14 $59,437 −$15,893 -27%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 by February 28, 2025? Feb 14 $10,886 −$5,698 -52%
Ripple above $2.35 on February 14? Feb 14 $13,569 −$13,529 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 by February 28, 2025? Feb 14 $13,299 +$907 +7%
Will Ethereum hit $3000 by Friday? Feb 07 $4,736 −$4,460 -94%
Solana above $240 on February 7? Feb 06 $1,557 +$497 +32%
Ethereum above $3,400 on February 7? Feb 06 $11 $0 -1%
Will $Trump FDV be $25-30b on Feb 1? Feb 01 $597 −$597 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $8,000.00 by March 31? Feb 01 $143 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $3,750 by January 31, 2025? Jan 31 $145 −$1 -1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after January 2025 meeting? Jan 27 $281 −$281 -100%
Ethereum above $3,400 on January 24? Jan 22 $128 −$128 -100%
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? Jan 20 $7,424 −$600 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum above $2,000 on March 28? BUY Yes 5¢ $105 458d
Ethereum above $2,000 on March 28? BUY Yes 6¢ $121 458d
Will Solana hit $190 in March? BUY Yes 2¢ $19 463d
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? BUY Yes 0¢ $90 465d
Will Solana hit $190 in March? SELL Yes 6¢ $90 465d
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 465d
Will Solana hit $250 in March? SELL Yes 1¢ $10 465d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after March 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 0¢ $52 467d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after March 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 0¢ $88 467d
Will Solana hit $190 in March? BUY Yes 11¢ $170 471d
Ripple above $2.45 on March 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $35 471d
Ripple above $2.45 on March 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $88 472d
Ripple above $2.45 on March 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $105 472d
Solana above $145 on March 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $179 473d
Solana above $145 on March 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $97 473d
Solana above $145 on March 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $106 473d
Will Solana hit $190 in March? BUY Yes 12¢ $24 475d
Will Solana hit $190 in March? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 475d
Will Solana hit $190 in March? BUY Yes 14¢ $1,490 475d
Will Solana hit $190 in March? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 475d
Will Solana hit $190 in March? BUY Yes 11¢ $165 475d
Will Solana hit $190 in March? BUY Yes 24¢ $98 477d
Will Solana hit $190 in March? BUY Yes 24¢ $198 477d
Will Solana hit $190 in March? BUY Yes 32¢ $360 481d
Will Solana dip to $120 in March? SELL No 32¢ $360 481d
Will Solana dip to $120 in March? BUY No 27¢ $303 481d
Will Solana hit $190 in March? BUY Yes 29¢ $168 481d
Will Solana hit $190 in March? BUY Yes 31¢ $589 481d
Will Solana hit $190 in March? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 481d
Will Solana hit $190 in March? BUY Yes 32¢ $96 481d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 582 history records