Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:53:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6fca…0f19 crypto 135 markets active 8h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,046 (-11%) realized −$2,046 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate39%53W / 82L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days−$799
14 days−$799
30 days−$2,414
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$1,822
other 2% −$419
sports 1% −$150
weather 0% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-30.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -75.9% -78.2% 11% 11% -79.0%
≤30d 135 -23.1% -30.5% 39% 34% -19.8%
≤90d 135 -23.1% -30.5% 39% 34% -19.8%
all 135 -23.1% -30.5% 39% 34% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.5% 34% -19.8%
10% -37.1% 33% -27.5%
15% -43.2% 29% -34.5%
20% -48.8% 23% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -50% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$131 vs −$114 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,046
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses53 / 82
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)135 / 135
History coverage24d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 135 Trades
no open positions (51 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $94 −$89 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $157 −$106 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $104 +$81 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 12 $202 −$193 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $149 −$143 -96%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 2? Jun 01 $14 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 31 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 31 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 31 $103 +$84 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 31 $82 −$79 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 31 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 31 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 31 $102 +$45 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 31 $104 +$125 +120%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $328 −$322 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 30 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 29 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 29 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 29 $31 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 29 $16 +$14 +90%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 28? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 28? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 28? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 28? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 28? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 28? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C or higher on May 28? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 28? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 28? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 29 $159 −$159 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 29 $9 +$9 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 29 $0 $0 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 29 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 29 $185 −$21 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 29 $155 −$88 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 29 $156 +$179 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 29 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 29 $103 +$79 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 29 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 29 $104 +$102 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 29 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 29 $205 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 29 $98 −$94 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 29 $178 −$173 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 29 $155 −$144 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 29 $262 +$130 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 7h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 22¢ $51 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $94 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $51 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $157 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $185 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $209 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $202 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $149 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 6d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 2? BUY Yes 10¢ $14 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $104 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $104 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $82 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $104 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $147 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $102 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $229 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $104 17d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $16 18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $326 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $9 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $32 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $40 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 269 history records