Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:09:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6F 0x6fc8…cfac sports 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$375 (+16%) realized +$676 · open −$301
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%16W / 20L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$189
7 days+$125
14 days+$95
30 days+$95
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$462
other 37% −$331
crypto 3% −$49
politics 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -1.5% -10.9% 50% 50% +3.6%
≤30d 21 -1.1% -10.5% 48% 48% -0.4%
≤90d 35 -2.3% -11.6% 43% 40% +7.7%
all 36 +0.2% -9.4% 44% 42% +7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 42% +7.9%
10% -18.1% 33% -2.4%
15% -26.0% 33% -11.9%
20% -33.2% 31% -20.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$18 · ×2.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.08 per $1 lost it wins $2.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$676
Unrealized−$301
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses16 / 20
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage110d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 79¢ 0¢ $303 $2 −$301 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $15 +$19 +123%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $244 +$52 +21%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $40 +$55 +139%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $50 +$138 +276%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $108 −$105 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $16 −$16 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $46 −$45 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $7 +$6 +79%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $115 +$50 +43%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $66 +$52 +79%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 08 $12 −$12 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $68 +$10 +14%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $4 $0 -3%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $10 +$14 +140%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $15 +$9 +64%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $16 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $39 −$38 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterda Mar 27 $29 +$47 +163%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - BC Game Masters Championsh Mar 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 25 $9 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 25 $10 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - BC Game Masters Ch Mar 25 $443 +$54 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Mar 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Mar 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Mar 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Miami Open: Ugo Humbert vs Francisco Cerundolo Mar 25 $10 +$10 +104%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs OG (BO3) - BC Game Masters Championship Group Mar 24 $241 +$194 +81%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 24 $15 −$3 -23%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? Mar 24 $222 +$16 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Feb 25 $5 +$4 +88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 79¢ $305 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $34 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $15 3h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $25 6h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $25 19h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $25 22h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta SELL Vitality 100¢ $295 24h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 82¢ $244 26h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $95 26h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 41¢ $40 30h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $50 44h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $108 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 38¢ $16 3d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 54¢ $46 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FURIA 100¢ $13 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 55¢ $7 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $164 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $115 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 45¢ $3 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $66 4d
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 BUY No 43¢ $12 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-08? SELL Yes 100¢ $78 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 87¢ $68 7d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL 9z 55¢ $4 7d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY 9z 55¢ $4 7d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY FUT Esports 41¢ $10 7d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev SELL Alexander Zverev 100¢ $24 8d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 60¢ $15 8d
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY FlyQuest 29¢ $16 8d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Liquid 63¢ $39 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.92 · official $1.92 (match) · 95 history records