Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:47:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6fc4…a96c world 76 markets active 2h ago coverage 524d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-1%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%25W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$5
politics 22% −$6
other 18% −$2
sports 9% −$2
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 14% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 30 -1.0% -10.5% 33% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 72 -0.9% -10.4% 33% 0% -9.8%
all 76 -3.5% -12.7% 33% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 0% -10.0%
10% -21.0% 0% -18.6%
15% -28.7% 0% -26.5%
20% -35.7% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

524d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses25 / 51
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)76 / 76
History coverage524d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 76 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $36 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 22 $72 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $36 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 20 $33 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $24 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $33 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $35 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $122 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $0 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $77 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $29 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $68 −$1 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $47 $0 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $35 +$1 +2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $34 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $67 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$1 -32%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $32 +$1 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $2 $0 +7%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $42 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $37 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $39 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $43 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $36 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $48 −$1 -3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $5 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $37 −$3 -7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $38 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $42 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $76 +$1 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $8 $0 -4%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 18 $1 $0 +7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $2 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 17 $11 $0 +1%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $44 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 16 $39 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 15 $3 $0 -2%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $35 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 11 $43 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026? May 10 $77 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 08 $29 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $84 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $3 $0 -4%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $1 $0 -4%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $41 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $87 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $53 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $39 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 22 $18 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $36 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $24 3h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $11 3h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 69¢ $2 23h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $37 33h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $36 41h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 88¢ $33 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 88¢ $24 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 88¢ $9 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $4 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $20 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $4 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $20 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $33 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $21 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $12 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $37 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $39 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $18 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $15 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $13 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $17 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $3 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $34 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $35 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $6 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $30 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $6 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $30 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $0 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 321 history records