Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:51:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6F 0x6fc4…c956 crypto 321 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 46d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$702 (+1%) realized +$830 · open −$128
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +63% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip
Net edge+26%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate18%58W / 261L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$256per market
Trades / day36.6pace
Fees−$284est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$453now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 46d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% −$2,710
crypto 41% −$1,634
other 16% −$1,317
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)+47.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +44.8% +31.0% 17% 15% -28.6%
≤30d 268 +52.7% +38.1% 17% 12% -18.7%
≤90d 319 +63.1% +47.5% 18% 12% -17.0%
all 319 +63.1% +47.5% 18% 12% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +47.5% 12% -17.0%
10% ← realistic here +33.4% 10% -24.9%
15% +20.5% 6% -32.2%
20% +8.7% 5% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +63% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +70% → late +56% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
0.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$69 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$453
Realized+$830
Unrealized−$128
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses58 / 261
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$284
Open positions2
Markets (closed)319 / 321
History coverage46d ⚠
Avg bet$256
Trades / day36.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 319 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? No 50¢ 78¢ $224 $352 +$128 (+57%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 50¢ 22¢ $224 $96 −$128 (-57%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? No 50¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 86 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $674 +$234 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $416 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET Jun 15 $416 $0 +0%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $427 −$205 -48%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $891 −$327 -37%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,031 −$64 -3%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $340 −$93 -27%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $930 −$339 -36%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $316 −$100 -32%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2,248 −$317 -14%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $575 −$110 -19%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $359 +$8 +2%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $352 −$160 -46%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $359 $0 +0%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $358 −$179 -50%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $569 −$268 -47%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $359 +$297 +83%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $354 +$44 +12%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,397 +$232 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6PM ET Jun 11 $125 +$20 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7PM ET Jun 11 $180 −$50 -28%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $646 −$280 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1PM ET Jun 11 $200 −$50 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12PM ET Jun 11 $193 −$47 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11AM ET Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10AM ET Jun 11 $113 −$7 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET Jun 11 $200 −$50 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7AM ET Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5AM ET Jun 11 $138 −$19 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4AM ET Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1AM ET Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12AM ET Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11PM ET Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,523 −$219 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7PM ET Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5PM ET Jun 10 $120 −$10 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1PM ET Jun 10 $241 −$121 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6AM ET Jun 10 $300 +$28 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3AM ET Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11PM ET Jun 10 $133 +$33 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12AM ET Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $100 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $3,975 −$1,076 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8PM ET Jun 09 $100 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 7PM ET Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5PM ET Jun 08 $200 −$50 -25%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1PM ET Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12PM ET Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $217 −$58 -27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 69¢ $125 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $7 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $3 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 69¢ $107 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 31¢ $73 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 69¢ $21 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $0 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 69¢ $2 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 68¢ $20 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 67¢ $18 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 67¢ $28 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 67¢ $4 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 66¢ $57 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 46¢ $5 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 46¢ $28 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 46¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 46¢ $64 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 46¢ $49 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 46¢ $3 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 47¢ $4 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 47¢ $21 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 50¢ $123 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 49¢ $121 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 50¢ $5 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 50¢ $2 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 50¢ $9 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 49¢ $7 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 51¢ $126 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 48¢ $118 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $452.81 · official $448.00 · 3500 history records