Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:12:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6fc2…b287 crypto 705 markets active 0h ago coverage 133d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 133d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,868 (-16%) realized −$3,868 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%377W / 528L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day23.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 133d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,403
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-36.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 404 -62.1% -65.7% 26% 25% -71.6%
≤30d 785 -31.7% -38.2% 39% 37% -46.6%
≤90d 786 -31.7% -38.2% 39% 37% -46.6%
all 905 -30.3% -36.9% 42% 40% -36.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.9% 40% -36.5%
10% ← realistic here -42.9% 35% -42.6%
15% -48.4% 19% -48.1%
20% -53.5% 13% -53.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -55% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$27 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,868
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses377 / 528
Open positions0
Markets (closed)905 / 705
History coverage133d ⚠
Avg bet$34
Trades / day23.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 905 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$7 +304%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $117 −$117 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$30 -111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $69 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $18 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $4 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $0 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $23 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $18 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $89 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $22 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $17 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $0 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $0 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $43 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $63 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $69 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $67 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records