Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:35:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6fbf…3d96 crypto 56 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$26 (+10%) realized +$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate59%33W / 23L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day27.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% +$15
other 12% −$5
sports 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -5.2% -14.2% 59% 52% -5.0%
≤30d 56 -5.2% -14.2% 59% 52% -5.0%
≤90d 56 -5.2% -14.2% 59% 52% -5.0%
all 56 -5.2% -14.2% 59% 52% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.2% 52% -5.0%
10% ← realistic here -22.4% 43% -14.0%
15% -29.9% 21% -22.4%
20% -36.8% 14% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses33 / 23
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage4d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day27.6
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +19%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $14 +$5 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$4 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +48%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$3 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +27%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -96%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $3 +$2 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$3 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$5 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$3 +78%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$3 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 53m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 113 history records