Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:52:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6fbf…c9fe other 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$129 · open +$123
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%1W / 25L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$330per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 32% −$4
other 24% +$52
sports 12% −$2
world 11% $0
tech 11% $0
economics 10% +$65
culture 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 26 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 26 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$846) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$123
Realized−$129
Unrealized+$123
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses1 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)26 / 28
History coverage82d
Avg bet$330
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30? No 100¢ $0 $67 +$67 (+0%)
Pierce Brosnan announced as next James Bond? No 100¢ $0 $56 +$56 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mohsen Araki be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 22 $999 $0 +0%
Will Sacramento Kings win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 22 $991 −$1 -0%
Will Chicago Fire FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 15 $72 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 15 $25 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $22 $0 -1%
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 12 $67 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 12 $839 −$2 -0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $700B and $800B at market close on May 12 $819 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $850 −$1 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 11 $64 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $35 $0 -1%
Will Robert Jenrick be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i May 11 $856 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $857 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 10 $879 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $64 $0 -0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 10 $21 $0 -0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 10 $846 −$2 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 09 $194 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 09 $65 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Apr 09 $28 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 06 $198 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 05 $21 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $64 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on April 1? Apr 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $177 $0 -0%
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 01 $37 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $23 5m
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $17 23m
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $27 41m
Pierce Brosnan announced as next James Bond? BUY No 100¢ $31 59m
Will Sacramento Kings win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $732 1h
Will Sacramento Kings win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $257 1h
Pierce Brosnan announced as next James Bond? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will Sacramento Kings win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $991 1h
Will Chicago Fire FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $72 38d
Will Chicago Fire FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $51 38d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $25 38d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 38d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 86¢ $9 38d
Will Chicago Fire FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $10 38d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 86¢ $12 38d
Will Chicago Fire FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $11 38d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 38d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 86¢ $22 38d
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $67 41d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $838 41d
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $24 41d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $814 41d
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $21 41d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $700B and $800B at market close on SELL Yes $0 41d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $700B and $800B at market close on SELL No 100¢ $98 41d
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $22 41d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $617 41d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $25 41d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $231 41d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $850 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.51 · official $122.51 (match) · 84 history records