Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:04:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.5
score
6F 0x6fbb…ec2a other 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 396d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$6,380 (+33%) realized +$5,570 · open +$810
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate52%12W / 11L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$748per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$2,218now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$89
7 days+$89
14 days+$227
30 days−$568
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$3,196
sports 42% +$3,091
world 3% −$73
crypto 2% +$138
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +7.1% -3.1% 100% 0% -3.1%
≤30d 4 -1.7% -11.1% 75% 50% -21.3%
≤90d 9 +18.7% +7.4% 56% 33% -11.9%
all 23 +30.0% +17.6% 52% 43% +18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.6% 43% +18.8%
10% +6.3% 43% +7.4%
15% -3.9% 35% -3.0%
20% -13.4% 22% -12.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +57% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$635 vs −$188 · ×3.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.67 per $1 lost it wins $3.67
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

396d coverage
Net worth$2,218
Realized+$5,570
Unrealized+$810
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses12 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions3
Markets (closed)23 / 26
History coverage396d
Avg bet$748
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 23¢ $850 $1,771 +$921 (+108%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $530 $429 −$101 (-19%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 20¢ $28 $18 −$10 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $1,252 +$89 +7%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $330 +$138 +42%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 09 $1,421 −$1,400 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $1,372 +$605 +44%
Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Vit Kopriva May 28 $204 +$428 +210%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Apr 14 $200 −$34 -17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 14 $200 −$16 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 14 $150 −$22 -15%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $900 +$55 +6%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 27 $200 −$2 -1%
Miami Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Korda Mar 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 08 $100 −$4 -4%
UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez (Middleweight, Feb 22 $998 +$2,326 +233%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $393 −$393 -100%
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $3,599 +$1,015 +28%
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $323 +$813 +252%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 US Open? Sep 07 $458 −$55 -12%
US Open: Felix Auger Aliassime vs Alex de Minaur Sep 03 $348 +$365 +105%
UFC 317: Dariush vs. Moicano Jun 28 $1,000 −$39 -4%
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. Jun 21 $2,277 +$1,300 +57%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 French Open? Jun 08 $564 +$256 +45%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 French Open? Jun 08 $368 −$7 -2%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? Jun 04 $998 +$227 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $999 10h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $341 18h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $28 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $514 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $468 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $1,421 19d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $257 19d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $229 22d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $889 30d
Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Vit Kopriva SELL Martin Landaluce 98¢ $225 30d
Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Vit Kopriva SELL Martin Landaluce 98¢ $358 30d
Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Vit Kopriva SELL Martin Landaluce 98¢ $49 30d
Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Vit Kopriva BUY Martin Landaluce 31¢ $102 30d
Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Vit Kopriva BUY Martin Landaluce 31¢ $102 30d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 57¢ $463 30d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 32d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 46d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $27 52d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $354 52d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 52d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $166 74d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $184 74d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $128 74d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $50 74d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $100 74d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $100 74d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $100 74d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $100 74d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $100 74d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,217.78 · official $2,217.78 (match) · 256 history records