Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:43:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6fb6…59e1 crypto 162 markets active 0h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$52 (-11%) realized −$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate41%66W / 96L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$15
14 days−$18
30 days−$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$67
other 3% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 -6.1% -15.1% 42% 37% -18.1%
≤30d 159 -14.5% -22.7% 42% 36% -23.3%
≤90d 162 -15.3% -23.4% 41% 35% -23.7%
all 162 -15.3% -23.4% 41% 35% -23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.4% 35% -23.7%
10% -30.7% 25% -31.0%
15% -37.4% 17% -37.6%
20% -43.6% 11% -43.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses66 / 96
Open positions0
Markets (closed)162 / 162
History coverage37d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 162 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $0 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $2 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $2 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $2 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $1 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 507 history records