Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:18:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
6F 0x6fb6…68ee sports 138 markets active 2h ago coverage 644d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$57 (-0%) realized −$56 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate54%73W / 63L
Whale WR8%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$411per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$82
7 days−$82
14 days−$82
30 days−$162
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$48
politics 41% −$60
sports 15% −$29
crypto 3% −$45
world 0% +$1
tech 0% +$3
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +21.1% +9.6% 62% 38% -11.9%
≤30d 22 -12.6% -20.9% 32% 18% -10.2%
≤90d 29 -1.9% -11.3% 41% 21% -10.1%
all 136 +3.2% -6.7% 54% 29% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 29% -9.8%
10% -15.6% 25% -18.4%
15% -23.7% 23% -26.3%
20% -31.2% 21% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 8% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

644d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$56
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses73 / 63
Whale WR (big bets)8%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)136 / 138
History coverage644d
Avg bet$411
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 40¢ 38¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 19 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 19 $131 −$131 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 19 $208 +$72 +34%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $2,576 −$34 -1%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev Jun 18 $5 +$12 +238%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 18 $11 +$10 +93%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? Jun 18 $92 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $11,397 −$7 -0%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Camila Osorio May 31 $11 −$11 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Learner Tien May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe May 31 $13 −$13 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maria Sakkari vs Maja Chwalinska May 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $1,170 −$2 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $1,201 −$3 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $4,721 −$10 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $1,428 −$3 -0%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Jesper de Jong May 30 $13 +$33 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 29 $65 +$4 +6%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Daniil Glinka vs Juan Carlos Prado May 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Lukas Neumay May 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers May 20 $15 +$6 +42%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 20 $55 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? May 20 $67 $0 +0%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-03-14? Apr 02 $14 −$14 -100%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty Apr 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs Apr 02 $7 +$26 +378%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? Apr 02 $103 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Mar 13 $15 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Mar 13 $24 $0 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? Feb 23 $10 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? Feb 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? Feb 23 $60 $0 +0%
Saints vs. Titans Jan 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Bears vs. 49ers Jan 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 03 $5 $0 +0%
Eagles vs. Bills Jan 03 $3 +$4 +133%
Steelers vs. Browns Jan 03 $3 +$5 +176%
Rams vs. Falcons Jan 03 $2 +$8 +400%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 03 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 03 $50 $0 +0%
Bengals vs. Dolphins Dec 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Texans vs. Chargers Dec 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Falcons vs. Cardinals Dec 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Packers vs. Bears Dec 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Vikings vs. Giants Dec 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY 64¢ $10 1h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 40¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $280 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $208 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 1h
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 67¢ $2,542 34h
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 67¢ $2,576 35h
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev BUY Jakub Mensik 29¢ $5 19d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $46 19d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $0 19d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $2,705 19d
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies BUY San Francisco Giants 51¢ $11 19d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca BUY Casper Ruud 60¢ $16 19d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $95 19d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $10 19d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $9 19d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $5 19d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $6 19d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $8 19d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $6 19d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $9 19d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $7 19d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $9 19d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $9 19d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $9 19d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $10 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.25 · official $29.25 · 426 history records