Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:05:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6F 0x6fb4…da84 sports 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 590d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$425 (-6%) realized −$184 · open −$241
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate42%10W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$261per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$797now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$518
7 days+$784
14 days+$784
30 days+$784
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 39% +$175
other 37% −$176
politics 21% −$478
crypto 3% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +6.4% -3.8% 42% 42% +25.9%
≤30d 12 +6.4% -3.8% 42% 42% +25.9%
≤90d 12 +6.4% -3.8% 42% 42% +25.9%
all 24 -16.8% -24.7% 42% 38% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.7% 38% -13.6%
10% -31.9% 29% -21.8%
15% -38.5% 17% -29.4%
20% -44.5% 12% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$138 vs −$117 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

590d coverage
Net worth$797
Realized−$184
Unrealized−$241
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses10 / 14
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions2
Markets (closed)24 / 26
History coverage590d
Avg bet$261
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $870 $644 −$226 (-26%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $169 $153 −$15 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $511 +$87 +17%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $343 +$316 +92%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $450 +$59 +13%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $350 +$101 +29%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$43 -42%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $19 −$1 -7%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $115 +$277 +240%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$2 -42%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $92 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$1 -20%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $27 −$2 -8%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor Dec 20 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? Dec 19 $35 −$35 -100%
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 16 $150 +$55 +37%
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Arsenal end in a draw? Nov 08 $318 +$215 +68%
Boxing: Will Canelo vs. Crawford end in a Draw? Sep 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 13 $192 −$192 -100%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Jun 20 $436 −$436 -100%
Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? Jun 20 $350 −$242 -69%
Punjab Kings vs. Royal Challengers Bangalore Jun 03 $670 +$188 +28%
Will a Republican win Wisconsin Presidential Election? Nov 06 $261 +$71 +27%
Will a Republican win Virginia Presidential Election? Nov 06 $174 −$127 -73%
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Nov 06 $547 +$14 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $99 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $597 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $511 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 93¢ $432 4h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $197 4h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $313 4h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $30 4h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $30 4h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $509 16h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $450 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $451 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 77¢ $350 26h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $59 26h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 26h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 26h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 17¢ $13 26h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $19 27h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 27h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $393 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $2 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $96 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $4 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $9 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 58¢ $90 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $75 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $893 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $33 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $24 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $797.46 · official $797.46 (match) · 81 history records