Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:56:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6fb0…f5b9 tech 9 markets active 5d ago coverage 74d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$60 (-11%) realized −$52 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 39% −$3
world 19% −$16
crypto 19% $0
finance 17% −$32
politics 3% −$8
other 2% $0
weather 1% −$7
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.9% -10.4% 33% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 6 -8.5% -17.2% 33% 0% -18.4%
≤90d 8 -18.4% -26.1% 38% 0% -19.4%
all 8 -18.4% -26.1% 38% 0% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.1% 0% -19.4%
10% -33.2% 0% -27.1%
15% -39.7% 0% -34.2%
20% -45.6% 0% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$12 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$52
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage74d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? No 88¢ 44¢ $15 $7 −$8 (-51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $100 −$2 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 11 $111 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? May 31 $90 −$32 -36%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $104 −$16 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? May 28 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 15? Apr 13 $7 −$7 -97%
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Adolfo Vallejo vs Zachary Svajda Apr 13 $2 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.41 · official $7.41 (match) · 16 history records